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Friday, June 1, 2012

Its a Yes!

Was at the count centre in Clonard to see the count for the Fiscal Treaty referendum. Strong Yes vote in traditional Fine Gael areas with strong farmer support for Europe.  Support for Yes less strong in urban areas, my own ballot box was about 55:45 Yes so I’m pleased that the time I’d put in to campaign and ask people to vote paid off.

Media seem to focus on the fact that typical Labour areas are less enthusiastic for the Fiscal Treaty.  I’ve heard some claim that it’s a class breakdown and that working class areas are opposed to the fiscal compact due to the impact of cuts.  On the face of it that sounds plausible but if you look at turn out the there is a lot of evidence to show that turn out in working class areas was less than in middle class areas. I accept that working class areas are impacted by austerity but it begs the question why did relatively few voters that are impacted greatly by cuts vote No? I remember referenda on social issues where in the past working class areas were the areas that voted against Labour policy on Divorce and abortion, so I'm not convinced by the analysis that the labour electorate has moved away irrevocably.

The Sinn Fein stunt of going to the High Court on the day of the press embargo had no effect on the polls. Little happened in  a week to change people’s minds as he outcome matched poll predictions form a week ago.

One good thing put to bed is the suggestion that leads to the cynicism about a re-run.  The suggestion that the poll was about austerity was wrong, nobody endorsed austerity and nobody believed that a no vote would end austerity.  What has happened is that when the Irish people considered that the future of our country  and asked themselves was there in a future in being more like Greece or having a disciplined fiscal process they quickly made their minds up and gave Sinn Fein, Declan Ganley, UKIP  and the ULA the thumbs down

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