How did we get here? It’s the question on every Labour
supporters lips this week. The collapse of
the Labour vote in Meath East and the slump in Labour support in the polls.
Listen to the media analysts and they will point to a number of things; a
perception that election promises have been broken, the liberal agenda and the
failure to put as Barry Desmond used to say “manners on Fine Gael” and even
communications!
But let’s analyse the slump. It didn’t happen since 2011. It
started long before that, About 3 years Labour were in the mid 20’s in %
support in opinion polls. The slide
started before the general election so that while Labour won a record number of
seats in the Dail unlike 1992 its previous peak when it hit 33 seats rising
during the campaign, it hit 19.5% on a downward slope during an election
campaign. And that’s where the promises
came in. Promises were made in order to shore up support in the campaign
itself. In the absence of these promises Fine Gael would have had a working majority.
The popular view is that Labour broke General Election
promises. So Ruairi Quinn signed up to
protect students from an increase in college fees at a time when FG wanted a graduate tax and
FF wanted to jack up fees straight away to €3,000. Labour said that they would
protect child benefit and in fact child benefit for large families such as my
own have been cut not to the degree that FF cut it but that’s beside the point.
The claim by Eamon Gilmore that it would
be Labours way or Frankfurts way is often thrown back at Labour. The reality of the prom note was that the ECB
in Frankfurt are less than happy about what they describe as the Irish
operation. Wexford may not be indicative of the national perception as Labour
did indeed keep the one promise it made here on the development of the General
Hospital.
But once theres a perception its out there and that’s that.
But add to that the fact that Croke Park 2 has been badly received and is
losing Labour the public service vote or that the bombastic style of Pat Rabbitte
is turning the electorate off. Throw into all that the Meath East bye election
where Eoin Holmes was a good guy who
came across well in the media but was undermined by those in the party who should
know better.
So where do we go from here? There is funadementally
something wrong with the party that predates the General Election that saw
support slip away in 3 stages first before the election, next in the immediate period
to Christmas 2012 when it steadied at 13% and finally the freefall since
then. Unlike the Greens or PD’s there
was no one moment but it seems to me that the party is turning off vital
sectors that have traditionally been the bedrock of support; those on social
welfare, public servants, middle and lower classes, commuters in neagitve
equity who looked to Eamon Gilmore when he said “Is Feidir linn”
So lets fix the problem; first renegotiate the programme for
government to insist on the inclusion of policies that will see the wealthy pay
significantly more in tax, bring down top rates of pay in the higher echelons
of the public service and public life. Tackle bankers pay and assure people in
the family home who are behind on their mortgage due to a reduction in income.
Next we need to see a change in cabinet members. firstly
there are not enough women in cabinet and secondly there are too many Dublin
Labour Cabinet members. If that means that the party leader has to make way
then so be it. Nobody is above the party as any previous leader will
testify. I’ve always held the view that
on the day that Labour entered government that Eamon Gilmore showed poor
judgement. When senior members were arguing about who should have been Minister
for Public Expenditure and Reform, Eamon missed an opportunity to show
leadership and say “Look, I’m the leader and this job is a very hard one, I won’t
ask anyone to do something that I’m not prepared to do myself.” Eamon could have
been a good minister in that department, instead he’s in Foreign Affairs when
there’s little input within the economy.
Finally call a special delegate conference and put the
programme for government to delegates and let them decide if they want to stay
in government. If the message from Meath East is worthwhile listening to then
the feedback from Labour members is doubly valuable now.
