Our word is our bond!

Remember John Bruton? John was the last non FF Taoiseach who in his short period in office who led the Rainbow Government. John spent most of the last decade as EU Representative in Washington. Now on the eve of the ousting of the Fianna Fail government, John has spoken about the economic crisis that this new government faces from day 1. Strange that it seems to be the prerogative of former Fine Gael leaders to put their successors on the spot, Alan Dukes fronts up a banking pariah, Garrett Fitzgerald supported some aspects of Fianna Fail and Green banking policy while Michael Noonan ditched the Fine Gael economic stimulus plan as soon as he was appointed Finance spokesperson.

John reminds us that our word is our bond as a nation. Implicit in this is the suggestion that credibility is only something that a nation should worry about. So we should stand by our EU partners in the commitment to pay interest rates that will strangle our economy. I don’t agree with John Bruton, he’s wrong. A country that enters into agreement to pay what it cannot afford has no credibility. Our word and our bond have been devalued. I don’t like when someone puts on the green jersey to appeal to us about saving the country when in fact they prefer to save the economy.

While I don’t suggest that you should randomly burn bond holders the sooner some subordinate bond holders understand that they will not get their bonds cashed for some considerable time and that the effective value of what they think they are owed may not be what they expect and that they should plan accordingly for their own black hole in their accounts wherever they are, the better for everyone. Reputational damage happened long ago, there’s no such thing as a reputational transplant!
What people wanted in the General Election is a straight up honesty from the new government. First in line for realism should be the sub-ordinate bond holders and the ECB. The people will accept honesty and what it entails if they see those who could have done something been told a few straight facts. But let’s not forget our own Sir Humpreys in the Central Bank and the ex Regulator who failed to do their jobs. I hope that one result of the new government will be that the facts of how Fianna Fail and the Greens crashed the economy can be set before the people. Honesty doesn’t cost much and if that’s all we as a country can afford then it’ll be a sobering day for all.

Enda puts the boot into the Seanád?

The steady hand behind Fine Gael for sometime is starting to tremble. By now I think they expected to have been in the middle of a General Election campaign. If you believe the polls, and I do, Fine Gael would emerge from any election with extra seats and a likely party set for government. Instead they can only watch as the country passed Lisbon, the Greens rolled over and NAMA seems to be on course. I find it hard to believe that the budget won’t go through as the Greens and Fianna Fail will hang together rather than hang separately at the polls. Add to that the John O’Donoghue fiasco where Fine Gael was outflanked by Labour’s Eamon Gilmore and the pending polling this week from Red C which could see Labour support grow and possibly invite comparisons with Fine Gael and it just might reflect unfavourably on some of Enda’s recent calls. So there was a lot riding on it when Enda Kenny stood up to speak at the FG Presidential dinner in Saturday night.
What he came out with may well garner him support among an electorate sceptical about politics and sleaze but it possibly may start tongues waging in his own parliamentary party. Essentially he wants to abolish the Seanád. He says he will introduce a referendum within 1 year of winning power to abolish the upper house.
Brendan Howlin is our spokesperson on constitutional affairs. At present Brendan is putting together a policy position on the future of the Seanád for Labour. We don’t do things like FG. Policy will be presented, discussed and agreed by members before it is accepted as party policy. We haven’t a policy yet and I don’t wish to pre-empt any party decision however, I’d be reluctant to see the Seanád abolished. I think it serves a use. Its important to scrutinise legislation and provide a forum for the wider diaspora. There are people in the Seanád who wouldn’t be elected in a clientalist election.

There’s a number of problems with the Seanád. But do you dump it because it’s popular to bash politics? Already McCarthy proposes to abolish many local councils at a time when there is agreement to give more power back to local authority. I’ll declare an interest in the debate. I have a vote for life in the Seanád Election by virtue of filling in a CAO form 30 years ago and completing the course offered to me in college.
Let me tell you what I think is wrong and right about the Seanád and let me suggest how you may well fix it. What’s wrong is that how candidates are selected and elected never changed as society changed. Do we need to rely on the Seanád to provide vocational diversity in political life anymore? Do we need to continue with the mechanism by which only councillors and graduates from TCD or NUI worldwide elect the Seanád and a Taoiseach to add 11 extra senators, In the case of one sitting senator he was rejected at both the Daíl and Seanád election in 2007.
What’s right is that the Seanád allows Irish citizens outside the jurisdiction to take part in an Irish election. What’s wrong is how and when the election takes place. Simply remove the right of degree holders or councillors to vote in the election and extend the right to every Irish citizen. By simply electing one senator from each county or city council on the same day as polling in a General Election you will oblige candidates to pick which house they wish to serve in and eliminate the perception of the Seanád as either a rest home or a reward. Lets be honest and ignore the suggestion that senators represent a sectoral interest in the Oireachtas. All candidates need a nominating body to get their name on the ballot paper and if elected they obey their party whip.
At present Leitrim has no TD. This change would ensure all counties have representation. What’s more a postal ballot of all registered Irish passport holders living in Northern Ireland or outside the island can elect more senators. By simply changing who votes, who runs and how they are elected you can radically improve the Seanád and allow it to reflect the Irish diaspora and draw on the vast wealth of values that are there in our people. At max I’d elect 40 voting senators directly and allow MEP’s or Northern MP’s or MLA’s a right to speak.
However I don’t believe that the Seanád will change at all. 30 years ago a referendum was held to change the election of university senators but nothing changed. I suspect the motivation on Enda Kenny’s part for raising the subject is more to do with punching through the media noise rather than a deal breaker (or maker) in any negotiations to put together a coalition after the next election. The real question I’d love to hear Enda answer is would he walk away from coalition negotiations if a potential partner refused to agree to Seanád abolition? I think already I know the answer to that.

Holidays!

Could it really be a year since Brian Cowen had a whale of a summer opening golf clubs while the economy colapsed? Is it a year since I started this blog? A lothas happened since I put up the statcounter on this blog. Over 5,000 visits have been made to the blog from all over the world but mostly Ireland. My youtube channel Menapia has had over 7,000 hits since Christmas.

We'd our last meeting of Wexford Borough Council last night. Tomorrow I'm away for a break so the blog will be on hold for a few weeks. Before you ask we're staying in Ireland.
There's good weather and as you can see form the pix it's a chance to share an ice cream with your friends in the good weather. I hope the weather is good where you are and that you get a good break.


See you after the hols!

FG's economic policy may not appeal to Labour

Lets be clear, Fine Gael have started a sprint in what is a marathon. The election will not be next year. That’s because FF are doing so poorly that they’ll be hammered even at 30% in the opinion polls. Sure, FG will make gains whenever the election is called and the reality is that FF are not going to push the self destruction button and send themselves to oblivion. Neither for that matter are the Greens, in any election Mary White, Paul Gogarty and Ciaran Cuffe are dead men walking. Their only possible gain is Dan Boyle and it’s not going to happen.

So why is FG sprinting? No individual FF TD can do what Jim Kemmy did almost 30 years ago so the prospect of the ultimate government own goal is low. So the only benefit for FG is that they achieve what Fine Gael always wanted and that was to take the PD votes. And they have. FG in today’s poll effectively hoovered up the PD votes. To nail these voters down Richard Bruton and Leo Varadaker have played a good cop bad cop routine, Leo has pushed the right wing line while Richard has portrayed the trusty uncle, the sort you’d trust with your confirmation money.

This double act has successfully brought the PD voter’s home and as an operation it’s worked. A certain amount of arrogance is needed to charm PD voters and there’s a few FG TD’s hoping to make their name as poacher in chief of PD votes. But the reality is that they’re not going to get to implement their policy because Cowen is not going to oblige with an election until it suits him. I’m sure Bruton & Varadker understand this but they’re running a big risk. And it’s this, Labour doesn’t agree with their analysis of our economic problems nor with many of their proposed solutions. Labour doesn’t agree with their approach to the bank bail out. Labour doesn’t share their view on a pay freeze for the public sector nor the plan to bring in a graduate tax to pay for 3^rd level education, that’s unworkable, You’ll see Irish graduates seeking jobs outside the state and graduates coming into this jurisdiction who aren’t liable for their proposed tax. What next? A tax on those who were in hospital to pay for their care retrospectively?

Labour is being taken for granted. Enda Kenny has been outshone by Eamon Gilmore’s outstanding performance in the Dail. It’s hurting so the result is to ignore Labour. A questionable strategy based on the assumption that Labour will come good on the day and provide the numbers to deliver power for Enda Kenny. There’s nothing more certain to drive Labour people nuts than taking Labour for granted. John Bruton found this out in 1992 and Albert Reynolds & Bertie Ahern discovered in 1994. Labour will not be pushed around.

Labour is doing better now than at any time since the mid 90’s. A growing confidence will see extra seats won when the next General Election is called. It suits Labour to have a General Election later rather than sooner. Labour may well benefit more from preferences over FG.

FG is making a mistake now. Labour will not go along with their views on reducing numbers in the public service. Labour will not support FG’s view that there should be a pay freeze in the public service. Labour opposes FG’s view that teacher’s pay should be cut. I believe much of Labour’s extra support is from teacher’s and public servants and their families scared at the implications of FG for their jobs and working conditions. That’s the feed back to me from teachers. What no one has mentioned so far is that FG’s policies will spell disaster for the public service. Enda Kenny says the state should buy shares in the banks and give them to the citizens. I’ve a notion of a young unemployed couple on the housing list being given a piece of paper saying they own a tiny proportion of a bank. FG are going back to the Thatcherite view of the shareholding democracy at the wrong time in an economic cycle.

However once FG have annexed the PD vote watch how they’ll ease up on the right wing rhetoric and as they do, Labour support may drop in the polls as public servants perceive their jobs are safe. What should Labour’s response be to FG’s move to the right? Labour has always indulged FG’s fascination with law and order. Is it that Labour has not been credited for this?

Should Labour ignore FG’s Varadker? Does responding to Varadker give him a credibility he doesn’t deserve? What about some of the new TD’s who see themselves as being on the right as opposed to the old liberal FG tradition? I’m slowly coming to the view that what happens in FG may be more important to Labour than what happens in FF. Watch this space, the more FG take off in the polls the less likely Labour will do a deal. So in fact if you want change, a vote for FG is wasted, they’re going nowhere without and unless Labour’s say so.