Bruton’s beeline for Labours red line?

In each department the line minister is the ultimate decider of policy. The Duffy/Walsh report into pay rates was ordered by the outgoing Enterprise Minister Batt O’Keeffe. The report was agreed as part of EU/IMF/ECB bail out. For weeks there have been suggestions in the media and business circles that the report would roll back the regulation of pay in sectors such as hospitality, restaurants, etc. paving the way for lots of extra jobs. At least that what IBEC would have us believe. Their idea was to cut premium payment for Sunday work and streamline other allowances and rates dividing greater Dublin from the rest of the country, making it easier to take on extra workers at a lower rate. What you might ask about the consumer? Was there not a suggestion that charges could drop in these sector as dramatically as proposed? The straight answer was; No!

The reality for many trying to get to work on a Sunday is that public transport is non existent in rural areas on a Sunday morning, child minding impossible. Many people still regard Sunday as a day of observance or a family day. There is a need to cover these expenses on the part of the employer. Is it likely that the Minister comes into work on a Sunday in his office with or without any allowance using public transport?

It must have come as a huge disappointment to the suits when the Duffy Walsh Report made no such recommendations for sweeping change. Indeed the report highlighted the importance of having agreement in the sector about how wages could be decided to avoid having differentials between businesses. However Jobs Minister Richard Bruton has indicated his own view that JLC rates should be cut any way. It is merely his own view and not a Labour view and not the National Government. This time last year Richard called the Fine Gael leadership wrong. He was out of step with his own party and was dismissed as a man who eats his dinner in the evening, presumably in one of the restaurants he now wants to see pay their workers less. What is more interesting is that few FG back benchers have supported his call for pat cuts for those on low pay.

In this rush of blood to throw out the Duffy Walsh report one wonders who would bother preparing a report for his department in the future? If the detailed work is going to be summarily dismissed because the minister has decided otherwise? I don’t believe for a minute that the minister will get the changes he wants, it’ll never come to that. However the difference between Labour and Fine Gael or more correctly Richard Bruton should be dealt with before the matter is publicly aired. That’s what programme managers used to do. As I’ve blogged before we do need them badly to get agreement on how issues should be addressed. I’ve always regarded John Bruton as antagonistic minister to Labour but an outstanding Taoiseach. Perhaps Richard should have a word with his brother before he changes low pay into no pay?

Would you like a pay cut with that?

Never let a good crisis go to waste was the maxim of Rahm Emanuel, Barak Obama’s chief strategist. Well it seems that the Irish fast food industry are as much West Wing fans as chicken wings when it comes to increasing their profits! Today in the Supreme Court some key players in the fast food industry are challenging the Joint Labour Agreements and other legislative protection for workers in the industry.
I’m gobsmacked that this highly profitable industry is trying it on . Average wage in the business is about €350 per week while NERA reckons nearly 4 in every 5 operators already ignore minimum wage and other employee protection. Despite the high rent paid by many chains such as Supermacs, Burger King and Eddie Rocketts profits in the business have never been better as fast food replaces a meal out for many trying to make less money last longer on a night out.
I have sympathy for anyone trying to stay in business at the moment. As Mayor I am conscious of the difficulties. I know that rent and rates are often cited as difficulties and I can understand that someone can have problems implementing legislation when costs can be out of control however this is not such a case. In fact the plaintiffs are concerned that the present legislation damages their property rights! It seems that property is more important to some people in Ireland.
I believe that others who are in the retail or food business are being done no service by the fast food industry and that it would be better if these business were told preferably by IBEC or that wonderful man in ISME who always seems to want a level playing pitch for small business that they should stop taking advantage of a collapse in consumer confidence elsewhere in business so as to maximise their sectoral profits.
Or could it be that there may be some who would like to see the protection of minimum wage and conditions eroded and have a sneaking regard for the fast food industry pulling a fast one on its workforce?

We are where we were left!

I’m tired of clichés being trotted out as a glass ceiling to box in disenchantment. We are where we are ranks as one of the worst offenders! In fact we are where we were left or more likely abandoned. While most of us face in to a windy or wet Easter spare a thought for Sean Fitzpatrick who has a pad in Marbela that he can get away to free gratis courtesy of a FF appointment to the board of Aer Lingus, who this week announced a record loss of €80M.
If that doesn’t move you then think of how David Drumm feels as he cowers behind his front door as Charlie Bird gapes in his letter box innocently asking him “Why are you ducking down?” Fair play to Charlie, I know his time is almost up as Washington correspondent but thanks for the priceless 90 second clip where he tracked down Drumm to his New England trophy home. Drumm owes his former employer Anglo Irish Bank over €8M (and it seems I and other tax payers are now liable for over €6m) and he is where he is and I’m where he left me!

Make no mistake about international opinion. Just because the international movers and shakers in the financial world approve of the overall figures coming out of Merrion St doesn’t mean there’s another way of arriving at the same figures. All the international lenders want from us is money, where it comes from they’re not bothered. So lets not worry too much about the FF and Green line that international confidence is being restored in the economy. What really matters is the confidence of the ordinary person to spend. There’s little indication that the spending will resume and the reason is that wage cuts and unemployment mean that there is very little spare money.
That’s why the agreement reached between the government and the public service unions will fail. It did nothing about restoring wage cuts.
Indeed the suggestion that less workers will do more work and in return pay cuts will be held back till 2014 shows a lack of understanding of how badly hit many particularly low paid public sector workers are. I’m not hugely surprised, last year I met a woman who worked in Social welfare who said that she’d be better off claiming rather than administering unemployment payments. Here's where the 2 threads plait together. Many public sector workers are fed up seeeing there wages cut by a government that has no problem finding as much money as will be needed to bail out the bankers
In my own case, to propose that teachers work an extra hour is a kite being flown. The suggestion that schools would open for another hour is wide of the mark. Given synchronisation of school year and contracts for school buses what it really means is an extra class contact hour in the week for each teacher. That would mean less time to do the preparatory work for practicals, less time for my post of responsibility but more importantly less jobs for teachers.

The likely alternative to accepting this deal is another pay cut at the end of the year. The follow on response will likely be non co-operation with inspection or Whole School Evaluation and a retaliatory further pay cut by Cowen and Gormley. What happens in my area will happen in others. Its very depressing for those of us who work in the public sector. To be fair to Cowen and Lenihan they’re doing what you’d expect them to do so where is the leadership from the union side? We need a vision to oppose the right wing orthodoxy of "There is no alternative" or "We are where we are" school of economics. I'm pleased my union executive have given this deal a thumbs down, I understand that each union is autonomous in accepting or rejecting. Its not enough to sit back and allow the government agenda to go unchallenged.
If that happens the net outcome of the Celtic Tiger will be a race to the bottom in every sector and the starting gun has been fired in the sack race.

A modest proposal to shoot yourself in the foot

I had the opportunity last Friday to listen to RTE News at One and my ears pricked up when I heard Sean O’ Rourke say that he would be speaking to a principal who had the solution to teacher absenteeism. I’m all ears when it comes to problems and solutions so I pulled myself closer to the radio for the interview. A local principal who was a former General Election candidate for Fine Gael was supporting the Minster for Education in his efforts to tackle teacher absenteeism. His suggestion was that any teacher absent should be docked 20% of weekly pay if out for a day uncertified leave. Currently teachers are allowed 3 days uncertified sick leave.
The principal claimed he could spot clear trends in teachers being out on Mondays and claiming uncertified leave to attend weddings.
He felt it wasn’t a major problem but teachers should be held accountable for where they should be if not in class. I wonder was this view based on the premise that Batt O’Keeffe released figures that claimed 12,000 teachers were absent without certification on Mondays during the school year. These figures look like there’s a real problem here so lets take a closer look at Batt’s maths! Minster O’keeffe never specified whether he was talking about primary or secondary school.
Firstly there’s 40,000 teachers and 31 Mondays in the school year. So that’s 1.25M working days in the school year. As a percentage of this number of working days that means uncertified absenteeism in the sector on Monday is less than 1%. So that’s the extent of the problem. One feels that the only reason why these figures are being thrown out is to distract from the campaign against education cuts. Fianna Fail is trying to split teachers from parents and is using this information in an attempt to drive a wedge between them. I think if most managers could rely on 99% of their workforce showing up on Monday morning they’d be happy.

I know the Principal well having spent 3 years on the board of management as the VEC representative. Strangely in my time there he never mentioned a problem with absenteeism at the school and I don’t believe there is one. I think however if his proposal goes through there will be one. If a teacher is sick and has to go to a doctor each time they’re out then when the doctor asks how long will I make the cert out for you can bet the teacher will then say, “make it a week”. Teachers are no different to any worker and will of course max out on time allowed. And so human nature being what it is finds a way around the modest proposal of our retiring principal. It’s a shame that when a teacher is retiring that he takes an opportunity to have a pot shot at his fellow professionals who not just owe a loyalty to their principal but are entitled to a loyalty in return.

FG's economic policy may not appeal to Labour

Lets be clear, Fine Gael have started a sprint in what is a marathon. The election will not be next year. That’s because FF are doing so poorly that they’ll be hammered even at 30% in the opinion polls. Sure, FG will make gains whenever the election is called and the reality is that FF are not going to push the self destruction button and send themselves to oblivion. Neither for that matter are the Greens, in any election Mary White, Paul Gogarty and Ciaran Cuffe are dead men walking. Their only possible gain is Dan Boyle and it’s not going to happen.

So why is FG sprinting? No individual FF TD can do what Jim Kemmy did almost 30 years ago so the prospect of the ultimate government own goal is low. So the only benefit for FG is that they achieve what Fine Gael always wanted and that was to take the PD votes. And they have. FG in today’s poll effectively hoovered up the PD votes. To nail these voters down Richard Bruton and Leo Varadaker have played a good cop bad cop routine, Leo has pushed the right wing line while Richard has portrayed the trusty uncle, the sort you’d trust with your confirmation money.

This double act has successfully brought the PD voter’s home and as an operation it’s worked. A certain amount of arrogance is needed to charm PD voters and there’s a few FG TD’s hoping to make their name as poacher in chief of PD votes. But the reality is that they’re not going to get to implement their policy because Cowen is not going to oblige with an election until it suits him. I’m sure Bruton & Varadker understand this but they’re running a big risk. And it’s this, Labour doesn’t agree with their analysis of our economic problems nor with many of their proposed solutions. Labour doesn’t agree with their approach to the bank bail out. Labour doesn’t share their view on a pay freeze for the public sector nor the plan to bring in a graduate tax to pay for 3^rd level education, that’s unworkable, You’ll see Irish graduates seeking jobs outside the state and graduates coming into this jurisdiction who aren’t liable for their proposed tax. What next? A tax on those who were in hospital to pay for their care retrospectively?

Labour is being taken for granted. Enda Kenny has been outshone by Eamon Gilmore’s outstanding performance in the Dail. It’s hurting so the result is to ignore Labour. A questionable strategy based on the assumption that Labour will come good on the day and provide the numbers to deliver power for Enda Kenny. There’s nothing more certain to drive Labour people nuts than taking Labour for granted. John Bruton found this out in 1992 and Albert Reynolds & Bertie Ahern discovered in 1994. Labour will not be pushed around.

Labour is doing better now than at any time since the mid 90’s. A growing confidence will see extra seats won when the next General Election is called. It suits Labour to have a General Election later rather than sooner. Labour may well benefit more from preferences over FG.

FG is making a mistake now. Labour will not go along with their views on reducing numbers in the public service. Labour will not support FG’s view that there should be a pay freeze in the public service. Labour opposes FG’s view that teacher’s pay should be cut. I believe much of Labour’s extra support is from teacher’s and public servants and their families scared at the implications of FG for their jobs and working conditions. That’s the feed back to me from teachers. What no one has mentioned so far is that FG’s policies will spell disaster for the public service. Enda Kenny says the state should buy shares in the banks and give them to the citizens. I’ve a notion of a young unemployed couple on the housing list being given a piece of paper saying they own a tiny proportion of a bank. FG are going back to the Thatcherite view of the shareholding democracy at the wrong time in an economic cycle.

However once FG have annexed the PD vote watch how they’ll ease up on the right wing rhetoric and as they do, Labour support may drop in the polls as public servants perceive their jobs are safe. What should Labour’s response be to FG’s move to the right? Labour has always indulged FG’s fascination with law and order. Is it that Labour has not been credited for this?

Should Labour ignore FG’s Varadker? Does responding to Varadker give him a credibility he doesn’t deserve? What about some of the new TD’s who see themselves as being on the right as opposed to the old liberal FG tradition? I’m slowly coming to the view that what happens in FG may be more important to Labour than what happens in FF. Watch this space, the more FG take off in the polls the less likely Labour will do a deal. So in fact if you want change, a vote for FG is wasted, they’re going nowhere without and unless Labour’s say so.