Once in a full moon!

Tonight’s full moon is set against the background of the most extraordinary day in Irish politics since 1982. They say a week in politics is a long time. So what does that make 24 hours? It seems a long time ago since Micheal Martin was unceremoniously sent packing by Brian Cowen. The general public are underwhelmed by the move although judging by the Taoiseach’s behaviour on the order of business you’d have thought he’d just won the lotto, he was so high out! They say that to win you must be lucky, if that’s the case, Brian Cowen must be the most fortunate victor FF ever had. Martin is seen as being indecisive, citing the smoking ban of 7 years ago as his big achievement, while Lenihan is seen as having mis-led FF back benchers while Mary Hanafin thinks that Brian Cowen may not be good enough to be leader of Fianna Fail but is still Taoiseach material. Says all it ever needs to be said of the slum that has become Fianna Fail.
But today there’s even more! A reshuffle was to be held to fill the cabinet seats of departing cabinet and junior ministers. The best of FF strokes to pack the cabinet with as many members as possible was rumbled by the greens who have in the last few years packed as many party members into ministries, the senate and state bodies. The offshot of the whole thing is that the government is collapsing into a disorganised shambles that puts Fianna Fail first.
The Greens have still indicated that they want to stay in office to facilitate the finance act even though there is no trust between them and Fianna Fail. What they need to tell us is do they mean if the finance bill passes the Dail or the Seanád. Next week will see the Labour motion of no confidence and bizarrely the greens may vote in support of a discredited and shambolic government.
There's just 9 cabinet ministers left and if the greens 2 ministers go there will be less than half the cabinet left! There may not be a quorum for a cabinet meeting! If Cowen is shown the door by the FF backbenchers then the country may not have a government the ministres may have to tripple up in responsibility!.
Prolonging polling day to March 11 will draw out the pain and indecisiveness. The time has come to draw a line under the shambles of Ahern & Cowen. Let’s have an election now and a debate between Labour and Fine Gael about issues as to who’s best able to lead a new government.

The dreaded E Word, Is Election ‘08 likely?

Given the convulsion sweeping through the government after their decision to withdraw the medical cards for over 70’s, is it possible that we could be sleepwalking towards another General Election? It is unbelievable that broken promises form Election 02 are still tripping up this government.

I wonder about the possibility because with one seat vacant due to the death of Seamus Brennan, now a resignation by first time TD, Joe Behan, the incorporation of the PD’s into the FF fold now numerically brings Fianna Fail back to where they originally were numberswise. The reality that Finian McGrath and Michael Lowry are now semi-detached on the issue too leaves the Green Party playing the role which Michael McDowell played in Election ’07, will they jump won’t they jump and if so who cares? Under our law if a government falls on a budgetary measure it must resign. True Jackie Healy Rae remains on board but if the combined opposition were to vote in favour of the Fine Gael motion on medical cards there would surely follow a confidence motion. What then? A rearrangement or election? In the 80's Garret Fitzgerald fell from office when Jim Kemmy refused to back a budget plan to put VAT on shoes. This lead to the disastrous GUBU government

The Green Party’s credibility on this issue has been damaged because they are seen responding to FF back bencher pressure rather than concerns that they raised themselves in the run up to the budget. In every coalition there arrives a crunch issue for the smaller party when they stare into the abyss, For Dick Spring it was food subsidies and Reynolds passport’s for sale, for O’Malley being called a liar, for McDowell it was Ahern’s finances and for the Greens it’s the grey’s. How you handle this in the eyes of the electorate dictates your standing for the rest of that Dail.

The recent past showed how McDowell’s party imploded when he wanted to pull out during the campaign. This is surely weighing heavily on the minds of the greens as they appeal very much to middle class voters slightly younger than those who followed McDowell. As Labour found out in 1997 the middle class can be very unforgiving when it comes to crucial issues. I don’t think they’ve changed and indeed if anything the rapid changes in society show there are now many more out there in the long grass waiting as the middle class is significantly bigger than in the 90’s.

As Jackie Healy Rae once said when he threatened to walk out on FF, it may be time soon to get the bicycle clips! One way or another we're facing a fascinating week, if the government gets through it intact some one will have to back down. I'll cast my eye over the budget next week but in the meantime discuss and vote above!