The Council is dead, long live the council!

So there’s just 80 days left to polling in the local elections.  The legislation to abolish local urban government is gone through the house, signed and by the President and now law.  I don’t think that it will be challenged, the legal advice to councillors is that at best its 50/50 and would not be head before an election anyhow. So urban councils are into their last few months, I regret this but I’m a realist, little can be done unless the Minister has a change of mind. In truth it won’t happen, not with this Minister. I am sorry our council is going. I think that it will damage Labour in areas like Connacht where off a small vote a labour councillor might get a seat on in a town but cannot expect one in a county council. We’re a national party that everyone in the state must have the option of supporting. Instead we’ll see more councillors from the same old, same old political backwoods.

But what does this really mean in Wexford? In my view a whole lot. Wexford will have a Municpal Borough and District council but let’s not take the eye off the ball. The cheque book moves over to the County Council.  Wexford Town’s development will now need the nod from the County Council. And here’s the rub! Wexford Town will elect just 5, maybe 6 councillors out of 34 county councillors.  Previously where different parties might have differed in Wexford Borough Council on national issues, they united on local issues that affected the town. Under the new arrangement Wexford may well get an unpleasant surprise. Councillors from other districts, indeed even resident within the district but who get votes outside of the town may have a very different view of what the town deserves.

In reality nobody asked for austerity in the last 5 years. Was there an alternative in government? Yes there was! I remember the cliché of heavy lifting in 2009/2010 when FF and FG wanted to front load the pain and cuts.  FF did make sweeping cuts that they now tend to forget. In the end the compromise government formed 3 years ago agreed how to proceed to get the Troika out. So now they’re gone , we’ve moved on.

So let’s move on even further. What have any of the parties got to say about what Wexford needs to go forward? It sounds very seductive to lend an ear to how hard the cuts have bitten. But does this make someone who opposes a government a good councillor? It’s easy to oppose but in any new council Wexford town’s councillors will have to stand together for Wexford. Jumping up and down to oppose  government will go down like a lead balloon with those that need a job, want a future or need a start. Its then the real politics will start

Don't mention the war

So Martin McGuinness is the latest candidate to get a nomination for the Presidential Election. Martin is not the first republican to run in such an election. I haven’t met anyone yet who thinks he will win. Most people think that his candidacy is about Sinn Fein replacing Fianna Fail as the main opposition party. The hype behind McGuinness is about creating the impression that only Sinn Fein has an alternative to the government. At one fell swoop the ULA have been marginalised by SF as they set about the task of peddling the myth of Martin the man from Damascus, while his namesake Micéal watches from the sidelines. McGuinness will add Fianna Fail and some independent support to his own and will probably get about 25% of the vote.

Martin is not one for deep thoughts. Derry is not the hotbed of left wing radicalism that West Belfast likes to portray itself as. McGuinness’ Ard Fheis speech was a folksy, Uncle Martin ramble, the last remaining Chuckle Brother still managing to smile back. Derry is fundamentally a place of established socially conservative nationalists, McAteer, Hume (who genuinely did the state some service and has been deliberately marginalised by SF & FF) and now the teetotaller McGuinness. The journalist Suzanne Breen tells a story of how McGuinness attacked her publicly for writing about the sexuality of Pearse and Roger Casement. When the past is mentioned Sinn Fein now are only looking forward and want to talk about the future deal. Expect the SF campaign to adopt the Basil Fawlty defence of don’t mention the war.

Ironically the campaign will attack all other candidates as establishment ignoring the realities of Catholic Derry politics where nationalism has been the established force and driver for the last 40 years. In Derry Eamon McCann was the anti-establishment candidate at the 2011 Assembly elections. However SF won’t let facts get in the way of presidential spin! The disastrous underpinning of clapped out banks through the bank guarantee scheme which SF so enthusiastically supported in 2008 didn’t happen. When the party could have done Ireland some service by staring at the political spot on the wall in Leinster House, they jumped in with 2 feet first to wave the green flag defending the banks.

In northern politics election time means 2 elections, a green one and an orange one. This election will be a double election also. There will be one for heading the poll between Michael D and Gay Mitchell and the other one for dominating the opposition. SF are in a one horse race in that. I expect the 3 party candidates to pull away from the independents. Second preferences will mean that Sinn Fein will have to appeal to the business types who back Sean Gallagher if he wants to remain in the race. This reality has yet to strike home with Sinn Fein. It is a sobering reality as it will mean that Sinn Fein will have to appeal to voters who are well beyond their core. That’s why there’ll be no mention of the war. The more that Martin’s past is raised the less likely it is that his candidacy will be successful.

Rebranding Fianna Fail? It started on the Late Late Show!

Gay Byrne is an outstanding broadcaster who has through the years effectively been the standard against whom all others are compared, not just within Ireland but among Irish people everywhere. An inner city boy done well. He’s credited with bringing sex to Ireland as his Late Late Show allowed the forum for 60’s Ireland to discuss issues like relationships, womens rights, and sexual liberation against the backdrop of Vatican 2. Gaybo was always seen as being a closet FF supporter as indeed many of those in the entertainment business were in the 60’s. He has a sharp nose for good TV, allowing Terry Keane speak about her affair with Charlie Haughey, something we all knew for years before, Gerry Adams’ first TV interview and who can forget his hour long interview with Annie Murphy the mother of a child fathered by his friend Bishop Eamon Casey. All were key moments in Irish broadcasting. Gay was viscously opposed to the Garret Fitzgerald government who banjaxed the country in view. He forced a climb down of too by using his radio programme and massive audience to great effect. He hasn’t been above mis-judging his audience as I remember from the time he tried to campaign against a decision by Telecom Eireann to rebalance phone charges which subsequently fell flat.

Who better to rebrand Fianna Fail? Fianna Fail is a party that no one trusts. Gay Byrne real skill is that he naturally relaxes his audience and he is someone you can trust. A good president? His predecessor worked in RTE too and like Gay Byrne she was close to a few bishops in her time, an outstanding legal brain who in my view would have been a very good minister if she could have been elected to the Dail. She was an inner city girl who had done well too. So the spec for Fianna Fail president is there in the safe in Mount St. You don’t have to be a card carrying member to be Fianna Fail as any Seanie Fitz and many of his type who were put on state boards by FF in the last 14 years will tell you to be of the tribe.

I welcome his entry to the presidential race. I just wonder though if after retirement and the end of the last decade but one whether his name really means anything to anyone under the age of 35 as he’s spent much of this time in retirement. It’s interesting that the poll for 4FM a semi national radio station aimed at the over 40’s shows Gaybo doing well. But what about those who listen to the youth radio? Another problem he will have will be that Fianna Fail already have another TV celebrity Sean Gallagher in the race and presumably as his campaign tanks on the back of his association with the most toxic party this side of Syria there is a desparate need for Fianna Fail to have something to shout about. That’s what’s in it for Fianna Fail.

The big problem Gay will have to shake off is his support from Fianna Fail and yet his claim that he will still be independent. I always thought that you couldn’t be slightly pregnant. You either are or you’re not. So if he’s not Fianna Fail’s candidate I presume he’ll tell us the names of the other political parties that are supporting him too soon. Otherwise the race will become all about Gay Byrne and not about the presidency and the country. To achieve this would be an outstanding feat on the part of Fianna Fail.

Fianna Fail is a cancer that has the potential to destroy this nation. Most people who suffer cancer believe when they enter remission it’ll never come back again. But it can and when it does it comes back more dangerous and pops up in parts of the body that were previously healthy. Ultimately it eats away at the body ending all hope. Let’s see if there is still any hope for this country.

August is a wicked month

So wrote Edna O’Brien. A truism that David Norris may well soon discover. While the controversy about him gained him popular support, the resignation of key team members may well prove fatal to his campaign. I’ve blogged before that I feel he has the right to stand for president but it would be astounding given the internal disarray in his team if he can now attract the additional support that he needs to cross the line at the end of the race. His own team members who’ve stood by him in the past are now tweeting their resignations and distancing themselves from his campaign.
Polls have shown that Michael D Higgins is more transfer friendly than any other candidate. The shredding of closet Fianna Fail Dragon Sean Gallagher on this week’s Pat Kenny radio show reveal deep dislike for his failure to address his past membership of the FF National Executive and his continuous obfuscation on why he left Fianna Fail amid suspicions that he never left at all. This in time may prove as corrosive to his campaign as Norris’s failure to clarify his past. Gallagher will act as a sweeper for disillusioned FF voters giving them a reason to vote and will transfer well to the official FF candidate.
David Norris may well try to continue his campaign but it’s unlikely that he’ll get 4 county councils to nominate him now and he still needs 5 extra Oireachtas members to help him get his name on the ballot paper in October. About 10 years ago then PD minister Bobby Molloy saw his political career end after it was revealed that he’d made representations to have a man convicted of sexual assault get out early. According to what I’ve heard it is alleged that David Norris used Oireachtas stationary to make a clemency plea to an Israeli judge in respect of a man convicted of the sexual assault of a young boy. There are clear similarities between the 2 cases in my mind. Will he get his name on the ballot paper now? If he succeeds it’s unlikely he will win now. Just as the 1990 Presidential election degenerated into a FF/FG fight about the Lenihan affair and whether Jim Duffy was right to release his tapes, this election may well become about David Norris and not about the office of the presidency.
If David Norris cannot command the support of his election team, how can he command the support of the entire people if he actually won? Where ever President Norris would go the international media would dwell on this controversy. Would that not get in the way of his hope that he would represent another positive image of Ireland? How would press fixation on this matter help improve our international image? ULA and Sinn Fein attempted to get Bobby Ballagh to run however he turned down their advances. It seems that Fianna Fail may well use the presidential election as a way to divert attention from the forthcoming Mahon Report into the man who at one time wanted to be their candidate Bertie Ahern. Brian Crowley for some strange reason feels he has what it takes for this job although he will be an also ran.
Michael D Higgins is well placed to attract support when more people focus on the nominated candidates. I amazed at his energy in covering the country from Donegal last night to Waterford tomorrow but not by his enthusiasm or vigour. He has an outstanding record on issues such as human rights and international development. In time the Norris controversy will be in the past and Higgins will go on to be an outstanding President. The people rarely get elections wrong. That why there has never been an election in the month of August, it is a wicked month!

The race for the race for the Park

In October we will have our first presidential election this century. A lot has changed in Ireland since the last president was elected in 1997. A presidential election is a different type of election. I’ve always regarded it as a statement of how we feel about ourselves in an international context and how we visualise ourselves as a nation. Mary Robinson represented a modern aspiring pluralist state that had something to say on the international stage. Mary McAleese is a more spiritual president who makes us feel comfortable. So what does the future hold for us now? Do we need a president who will re-build our self esteem as a community and if so to what end? Suggestions that the President should perform a role in reviving the economy miss the reality of the last decade that the economic growth didn’t reach everywhere. That suggests a President for a few and not for all. That’s the risk with celebrity TV candidates. How can they connect with the marginalised? I’m out!

Before you can run you’ve got to get a nomination. I’ve always transferred my vote in the past for David Norris in a Séanad elections. He’s an outstanding senator but would he make a president? If he’s nominated I’d certainly transfer to him but can he get nominated? The arrival of other independent candidates like Mary Davis and the Dragon make the process of getting nominations from the county councils harder as each candidate needs 4 and who’s to say that there are enough councils inclined to nominate? What if a political party decided to ask councils to nominate their candidates for them as they have every entitlement to do? Cats, pigeons and setting among come to mind.

That leaves Sinn Fein, Labour, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. I think Sinn Fein will nominate a candidate. Their 17 Oireachtas members plus help from a handful of like minded TD’s could see a candidate, perhaps Gerry Adams, with an eye to the 2016 centenary of the rebellion. Fianna Fail will run a candidate in the hope of a reasonable performance and picking up transfers on later counts. I expect Brian Crowley will be their man. Fine Gael may nominate Mairead McGuiness who will poll well in rural areas and outside Dublin. Which brings me back to Labour. We have 3 very able people declared as contenders; Michael D, Fergus Finlay and Kathleen O’Meara. It’s hard to say no to someone but it’s got to be done. Finlay and O’Meara are outstanding advocates in the area of health and welfare, 2 issues Labour has always been strong on. But I think the bold and imaginative candidate would be Michael D Higgins.

He has so many strings to his bow. Poet, Lecturer, former Arts Minister, philosopher, Galway via the Banner and Limerick and a journey through TG4 included. Potential support for Michael exists not just in these geographical areas but well beyond. He is a strong candidate who has a lot to offer and what’s more you could visualise him having a lot to say about our society and as to how national regeneration could be fairer, better and more sustainable than what went before. He’s done that for years in or out of office. That’s what I want a president to represent and to be. Michael D is the man who ended Section 31 and his appeal will bring in transfers and support beyond the Labour’s core vote. No one can win without that. He’s regarded by everyone as an outstanding orator and motivator.
Mary Robinson was challenged by Noel Browne for the Labour nomination in 1990. When Mary won that nomination we all set about winning the election around the slogan “A President with a Purpose”. That meant something then to me and it still does. It’s time to be bold and have a purpose. That’s why I hope Labour nominates Michael D Higgins as its candidate for the presidency next month.

We are where we are, BROKE

Its like watching a car crash. Government bluster was unspun when the Governor of the Central Bank outed the extxent of the bail out needed on Morning Irekand. Since then Fianna Fail and the greens have grasped at straws. Eamon Gilmore, Pat Rabbitte and Michael Noonan have battered the government over their denial at the extent of the fiscal mess.
Basically the problem I the banks. They spoofed the government and Fine Gael and Sinn Fein on the bank guarantee. That pushed back 2 years the day of reckoning as FF & the greens hoped that NAMA would revive their builder buddies and their paymaster banks. NAMA had morphed into a good bad bank while Anglo wanted to be a good bank and a bad bank while nobody told the department exactly how bad the mess was.
Just as Greece misled the EU on their own economic data the Irish big lie was the failure of the banks to level with the government on their precise position and the governments failure to have a regulatory regime. I’ve never rated Brian Lenihan as a Minister for Finance and the media who fawned over him in the last 2 years must be cringing today after his radio interview that failed to explain how the government decision to agree to the EU/IMF programme (not a bail out)) was despite the fact that we had enough money to keep the state (but not the banks) going until June next year was in the best interest of the euro.
It made Brian Cowen’s infamous Galway interview sound positively Churchillian by comparison. John Gormley thinks that the IMF arrival is good and may hasten changes he wanted to see for a long time! Lets see how that one pans out given the reality that TEEU has warned at civil disobedience and already there have been skirmishes between Gardaí and the SWM/PBP micro group at a student demo while an Eirigi councillor has thrown paint at Mary Harney.. The fear is that the next week building up to the demonstration in Dublin next week will be more of the economic reality of the IMF medicine for the country. The fear is that the low hanging fruit is gone and cuts will damage our country beyond the basics of what is needed for a cohesive society.
I hope I’m wrong but this could get very dirty as the Greens and Fianna Fail may well decide to tough it out with the people. Knowing many garda are as fed up with the government as the rest of us, can the government rely on every garda to do their bidding? A government that has just support from 20% of the people in the opinion rivals the support of that wonderful outfit the East German Communist Party at the end. I don’t believe they have any credibility nor right to govern. The Taoiseachs approval rating is now just in double figures and slightly ahead of the yield on Irish 10 year bonds.
We as a society are turning a corner but not the corner visualised when Brian Lenihan called us all to patriotic duty. The time has come for Cowen and Lenihan to do their patriotic duty and go and let the rest of us decide who will run our country. And while I think of it his predecessors son in law who warbles with a boy band has called for economic positivity from us.

Taking the chains!

It’s a great honour and its something that is hugely important to me. Being first citizen is the highest office you can get in Wexford politics. Lets be straight up it’s the best job in Wexford politics and the oldest. The County Council is certainly better resourced and has a wider remit but being Mayor carries a historical legacy that goes right back to the 14th century.
When the Normans invaded and subsequently rolled out town governance, Mayor was an enormously powerful job in local politics. The mayor called the shots. He (and it always was a man until the 1970’s) raised taxes, militias, passed sentence, performed weddings, decided what was spent and was enormously influential.
Happily the stocks are long gone from Wexford and I cannot see the circumstances when a militia might be needed for the moment! The town sergeant precedes the Mayor at formal events bearing one of the towns 3 silver maces. They date from the 18th century and we know that because on the staff there’s a harp representing Ireland, the rose representing England and the thistle to represent Scotland. All 3 kingdoms mentioned but nothing about our nearest neighbour, the Principality of Wales!

The traditional open meeting to elect the Mayor took place in Wexford Arts Centre, the original home of Wexford Corporation. I always enjoy these meetings as a councillor because there is something hugely significant and important in electing a Mayor. Being Mayor in Wexford is a completely different proposition to being Mayor in a bigger urban area. You’re so much more accessible and recognised. You’re ex-officio a member of all committees in both the town and the district. Add to that my membership of the VEC and it makes for a busy year in terms of policy development as well.
Not to mention there’s the social side to it or as it’s been described “Eating for Wexford”! When I served as Deputy Mayor 3 years ago I got to see that side of the town’s social life. I’ve always tended to think differently of invites to social events to those who actually organise them. You’re there because of who you represent. The others can do R & R but the Mayor can’t.

But there is something hugely important in being Mayor, local authorities are often derided but without them who would step into the gap? Moreover a Labour Mayor has always a vision of so what is mine? Hanging on the wall of the Arts Centre last night was a poster that said “I see the world as it is”. How appropriate! I pointed out that if you come to terms with the past you understand the present mistakes and you can plan your future. We all have a future in this town however it is one within the context of social solidarity. We cannot make those who are worse off pay for mistakes of the past. If we are to have a future it is on the basis that we all opt in. We must talk up our town, Why is it that decentralisation to Wexford worked? We have a lot going for us here, It’s time to tell the world about Wexford.

Wexford Local & Euro ’09 campaign launch

Last night Labour candidates gathered from around the county in the Ashdown Park Hotel in Gorey to launch both the local election campaign for Cllr Bobby Ireton and Joy Rice and the Wexford leg of the European campaign for Labour’s candidate in Ireland East Nessa Childers. The decision to require an immediate by-election for any Dail or Seanád member elected to Europe has significantly changed the race for the two big conservative parties. Heretofore a senior Oireacthas member generally a backbencher or former Junior Minister was wheeled out around a few counties to round up the party faithful and make sure the local vote transferred to their party running mate and hey presto Brussels here we come!
Things have moved on as the seats have been re-distributed to other countries but something tells me that the penny hasn’t dropped with FF or FG. Tickets are slow in being put together and campaigns are still on the drawing boards while de Rossa, Kelly and Nessa Childers are out knocking doors, shaking hands but most of all listening to how communities are dealing with the ongoing slump and explaining how a European dimension may provide some economic stability in the present chaos.

Nessa Childers is running a very strong campaign in Leinster. I met her last night and what struck me most about her is that she is an excellent listener. She said herself in relation to her family background in politics “if you know want to know where you’re going you must know where you’ve come from”. She has a constituency that stretches from the Shannon to the Irish Sea and from Hook Head to Carlingford Lough. A lot of different communities with a lot of different issues, if there’s anyone who can listen and articulate these needs in Brussels, I’m convinced its Nessa. She has identified the need for developing a new economy based on new technologies as the basis to re-boot our economy, she’s been to Brussels to put these ideas to the EU Parliament Vice President Rasmussen already. Meanwhile back home the two FF & FG still treat this election like a cross between a beauty contest and You’re a Star!

Joy and Bobby are a formidable team. They both appeal to different constituencies and I believe they make a good team. They compliment each other and I can see them both getting elected and as Bobby says holding the balance of power on Gorey Town Council. Gorey district gains a seat this time round and Fianna Fail will be under enormous pressure to hold their 2 seats. If the election was held today I don’t think they’d do it. Bobby is one of Wexford politics’ gentlemen; his day is on its way. I think that the big story of these local elections in Co Wexford will be Bobby Ireton. Don’t forget who told you that first!

I call the US presidential election

OK I know that I posted about 6 weeks ago giving 10 reasons why McCain would win, there’s been a lot of water under the bridge since and there’s just one reason why Obama can win. Bill Clinton identified it 16 years ago, It’s the economy stupid. I’m also going against my instinct that says never take any election for granted but something tells me its all over for McCain and that it has been for weeks. So it’s time to say where Obama will win the election not why. The US citizen uses a balanced weighting to elect delegates to an electoral college. For McCain to win he’ll have to turn about 5 big states away from Obama and that’s not now going to happen. I believe the following will support Obama;

California, Florida, New York, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia (first time since JFK) Maryland, DC, Delaware, Rhode Island, Iowa, Washington, Wisconsin, Oregon, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota (Didn’t go GOP even when Reagan ran!), Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Hawaii (surprise surprise!) Florida and my tip North Carolina and even possibly North Dakota. North Dakota hasn’t gone democrat in donkey’s years and if it does it’ll be some achievement, I’m not sure yet so I’ll leave it with McCain for the moment. That gives him a total of 350 Electoral College votes.

The following states I give to McCain; Texas, Missouri, Louisiana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska (hockey moms deliver!) Montana, Utah, Arizona, North & South Dakota.

The only state that I think is too close to call is Indiana. Given the Republican tradition and that if racism is to swing it anywhere, Indiana may have enough in the balance to tip McCain’s way. That leaves it as 185 for McCain. A comfortable victory for Barack, significantly beyond what Clinton achieved because Clinton always had the benefit of a strong third party candidate (Perot) to draw votes away from Bush or Dole.

So all it remains for me to do is to save you McCains last speech of the ’08 campaign. At about 3.15AM (Irish Time) he‘ll say the following word’s “It’s been a long campaign for Cindi & me, I want to thank all those people who voted for me, supported me and campaigned for me since Iowa. About 10 minutes ago I rang Barack Obama to congratulate him on his victory, I pledge my loyalty to him and ask you the American people to do likewise”.

The senate will go 58-42 in favour of the Democrat with Ted Stevens in Alaska having time to pick up the hockey mom while out on parole, Congress will actually see the Republicans not doing all that badly and that any breaks going they’ll get. Having said that they won’t go any where near a majority. I think Democrats to win here by 250-185.

The election was the easy bit, it’s now the real work starts. Believe me there’s a lot to do judging by W.

The dreaded E Word, Is Election ‘08 likely?

Given the convulsion sweeping through the government after their decision to withdraw the medical cards for over 70’s, is it possible that we could be sleepwalking towards another General Election? It is unbelievable that broken promises form Election 02 are still tripping up this government.

I wonder about the possibility because with one seat vacant due to the death of Seamus Brennan, now a resignation by first time TD, Joe Behan, the incorporation of the PD’s into the FF fold now numerically brings Fianna Fail back to where they originally were numberswise. The reality that Finian McGrath and Michael Lowry are now semi-detached on the issue too leaves the Green Party playing the role which Michael McDowell played in Election ’07, will they jump won’t they jump and if so who cares? Under our law if a government falls on a budgetary measure it must resign. True Jackie Healy Rae remains on board but if the combined opposition were to vote in favour of the Fine Gael motion on medical cards there would surely follow a confidence motion. What then? A rearrangement or election? In the 80's Garret Fitzgerald fell from office when Jim Kemmy refused to back a budget plan to put VAT on shoes. This lead to the disastrous GUBU government

The Green Party’s credibility on this issue has been damaged because they are seen responding to FF back bencher pressure rather than concerns that they raised themselves in the run up to the budget. In every coalition there arrives a crunch issue for the smaller party when they stare into the abyss, For Dick Spring it was food subsidies and Reynolds passport’s for sale, for O’Malley being called a liar, for McDowell it was Ahern’s finances and for the Greens it’s the grey’s. How you handle this in the eyes of the electorate dictates your standing for the rest of that Dail.

The recent past showed how McDowell’s party imploded when he wanted to pull out during the campaign. This is surely weighing heavily on the minds of the greens as they appeal very much to middle class voters slightly younger than those who followed McDowell. As Labour found out in 1997 the middle class can be very unforgiving when it comes to crucial issues. I don’t think they’ve changed and indeed if anything the rapid changes in society show there are now many more out there in the long grass waiting as the middle class is significantly bigger than in the 90’s.

As Jackie Healy Rae once said when he threatened to walk out on FF, it may be time soon to get the bicycle clips! One way or another we're facing a fascinating week, if the government gets through it intact some one will have to back down. I'll cast my eye over the budget next week but in the meantime discuss and vote above!