Political pantomime leaves us with 7 dwarfs!

I wish the surviving 7 cabinet ministers good health. That may strike you as being out of character for someone who opposes the policy of the Fianna Fail government and as of a few hours ago it is a Fianna Fail single party government that runs this country for the first time since 1989. However if any more ministers resign and the Dail does not replace them then there will be no functioning government in this country. You need a minimum of 7 cabinet ministers for a cabinet meeting. This possibility would be farcical. My main concern is that the international standing of Ireland and the political standards that should apply in this country have been trashed by the government that is now leaving power.

As far as I’m aware there are no ministers junior or senior in the Department of Transport and the ongoing dispute at Aer Lingus threatens to escalate. What started out as an internal Fianna Fail matter brought on by Golfgate developed into a crisis after a good old fashioned Fianna Fail stroke backfired. The likelihood is that the next Fianna Fail leader will never be Taoiseach and that what we are witnessing is the relegation of Fianna Fail to the role of just another political party. They’re not a movement as Mary Hanafin claims but an embarrassment. Eamon Ó Cuiv’s hope’s of re-establishing the party on a parish by parish basis fundamentally misses the point that people’s focus under this government has gone from the community that they live in and the party stands no chance of re-invigorating a sense of societal participation as Fianna Fail spent the last 14 years in power cosying up to the wealthy at the Galway Tent. Many people live detached from their communities because they couldn’t afford homes in the communities that they were born in.

Brian Lenihan and Mary Hanafin seem to have shot themselves politically in the foot and that leaves the main battle between O Cuiv and Martin unless Connor Lenihan makes good his threat to run. Running is good for the profile and may be the difference between re-election and the P45. I hope Micheal Martin wins. Of all the candidates he spent the last 14 years in cabinet stoking up the bubble and he cannot distance himself from the impact of his policies. Fianna Fail under Martin will fit into the 2 and a half party system very well in the half party slot.

I expect a General election to be called for Friday February 25th. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fianna Fail appointed 3 new junior ministers as the vacancies exist and the appointments are by the government and not by the Dail. Here’s hoping that the people of Wexford put the boot in to the Fianna Fail ticket. It seems likely that the older FF TD’s with a reputation for clientelism will survive. That’d be a bonus as the image that a new Fianna Fail leader would like to create in the opposition benches will conflict with the reality.

Or maybe just maybe there may yet be a sting in the tail for us all? A reverse Tallaght strategy where Fianna Fail support Fine Gael so long as Enda Kenny follows the 4 year economic plan? Or Fine Gael falls short of a majority and is supported by the new right wing economist grouping? By the way isn’t it peculiar that these right wing economists will only stand for election in constituencies with good social infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, LUAS, DART etc? If some of these guys felt that their policies were beneficial for the entire population why won’t they run for election in socially disadvantaged parts of the country?
Strange country with peculiar politics.

Once in a full moon!

Tonight’s full moon is set against the background of the most extraordinary day in Irish politics since 1982. They say a week in politics is a long time. So what does that make 24 hours? It seems a long time ago since Micheal Martin was unceremoniously sent packing by Brian Cowen. The general public are underwhelmed by the move although judging by the Taoiseach’s behaviour on the order of business you’d have thought he’d just won the lotto, he was so high out! They say that to win you must be lucky, if that’s the case, Brian Cowen must be the most fortunate victor FF ever had. Martin is seen as being indecisive, citing the smoking ban of 7 years ago as his big achievement, while Lenihan is seen as having mis-led FF back benchers while Mary Hanafin thinks that Brian Cowen may not be good enough to be leader of Fianna Fail but is still Taoiseach material. Says all it ever needs to be said of the slum that has become Fianna Fail.
But today there’s even more! A reshuffle was to be held to fill the cabinet seats of departing cabinet and junior ministers. The best of FF strokes to pack the cabinet with as many members as possible was rumbled by the greens who have in the last few years packed as many party members into ministries, the senate and state bodies. The offshot of the whole thing is that the government is collapsing into a disorganised shambles that puts Fianna Fail first.
The Greens have still indicated that they want to stay in office to facilitate the finance act even though there is no trust between them and Fianna Fail. What they need to tell us is do they mean if the finance bill passes the Dail or the Seanád. Next week will see the Labour motion of no confidence and bizarrely the greens may vote in support of a discredited and shambolic government.
There's just 9 cabinet ministers left and if the greens 2 ministers go there will be less than half the cabinet left! There may not be a quorum for a cabinet meeting! If Cowen is shown the door by the FF backbenchers then the country may not have a government the ministres may have to tripple up in responsibility!.
Prolonging polling day to March 11 will draw out the pain and indecisiveness. The time has come to draw a line under the shambles of Ahern & Cowen. Let’s have an election now and a debate between Labour and Fine Gael about issues as to who’s best able to lead a new government.

Going Going Gone!

By all accounts it’s all over for Brian Cowen. The party that has been led by the most unpopular leader in the country’s history is now going to remain in power until after the General Election while Fianna Fail will have a new leader that will spend the next 2 months distancing himself and the party from what they’ve done for 14 years.
So let’s tease out the possibilities. Micheal Martin may well be the new party leader who will not be Taoiseach. He will take decisions on the basis of what is good for Fianna Fail. He won’t be Taoiseach and he won’t have the responsibility of the job of Taoiseach, which is different to that of cabinet minister. Presumably with a caretaker Taoiseach subservient to the party leader as a party member, whatever Micheal looks for from Brian will be no problem! My fear is that Ireland is now on the verge of cronyism version 2.0. We’ll be unique in the world in having 2 discredited leaders, one in office but having no power, the other in power without an office. Fianna Fail will now do an Enda with Brian Cowen for the next 2 months hiding him from scrutiny hoping that their profile will plateau out. There exists a possibility that the General Election campaign will be effectively a 2 way debate between Labour and fine Gael with the economist candidates shouting from the sidelines.
The promised General Election is still at least 2 months off while the Greens seem happy to stay on for the sake of the planet and the Climate Change bill. It may be that there is a growing reluctance for a ballot and if a way out can be found to defer it then Brian Cowen will be happy for the sake of the party to comply, the Greens facing extinction will look the other way. The arrival on the political scene of the economist party is interesting as it will provide Fine Gael with additional options other than Labour should they be within striking distance of a majority. These candidates are not going to run so as to have a 5 minutes speaking time every 6 months from the backbenches. To be fair to Shane Ross who is very good at what he does in the Oireachtas, he wants to be in office and make decisions without the distraction of potholes and the minor inconvenience of the electorate with the blocked drains. That’s why he won’t run in his home constituency.
I hope that the Labour no confidence motion goes ahead and is successful. The prospect of a lame duck Taoiseach with a lame duck government with ministers who are at war getting a vote of confidence at carrying on regardless is toxic to our nation. It’s time to wave good bye to the past and let the people have their say.

We are where we are, BROKE

Its like watching a car crash. Government bluster was unspun when the Governor of the Central Bank outed the extxent of the bail out needed on Morning Irekand. Since then Fianna Fail and the greens have grasped at straws. Eamon Gilmore, Pat Rabbitte and Michael Noonan have battered the government over their denial at the extent of the fiscal mess.
Basically the problem I the banks. They spoofed the government and Fine Gael and Sinn Fein on the bank guarantee. That pushed back 2 years the day of reckoning as FF & the greens hoped that NAMA would revive their builder buddies and their paymaster banks. NAMA had morphed into a good bad bank while Anglo wanted to be a good bank and a bad bank while nobody told the department exactly how bad the mess was.
Just as Greece misled the EU on their own economic data the Irish big lie was the failure of the banks to level with the government on their precise position and the governments failure to have a regulatory regime. I’ve never rated Brian Lenihan as a Minister for Finance and the media who fawned over him in the last 2 years must be cringing today after his radio interview that failed to explain how the government decision to agree to the EU/IMF programme (not a bail out)) was despite the fact that we had enough money to keep the state (but not the banks) going until June next year was in the best interest of the euro.
It made Brian Cowen’s infamous Galway interview sound positively Churchillian by comparison. John Gormley thinks that the IMF arrival is good and may hasten changes he wanted to see for a long time! Lets see how that one pans out given the reality that TEEU has warned at civil disobedience and already there have been skirmishes between Gardaí and the SWM/PBP micro group at a student demo while an Eirigi councillor has thrown paint at Mary Harney.. The fear is that the next week building up to the demonstration in Dublin next week will be more of the economic reality of the IMF medicine for the country. The fear is that the low hanging fruit is gone and cuts will damage our country beyond the basics of what is needed for a cohesive society.
I hope I’m wrong but this could get very dirty as the Greens and Fianna Fail may well decide to tough it out with the people. Knowing many garda are as fed up with the government as the rest of us, can the government rely on every garda to do their bidding? A government that has just support from 20% of the people in the opinion rivals the support of that wonderful outfit the East German Communist Party at the end. I don’t believe they have any credibility nor right to govern. The Taoiseachs approval rating is now just in double figures and slightly ahead of the yield on Irish 10 year bonds.
We as a society are turning a corner but not the corner visualised when Brian Lenihan called us all to patriotic duty. The time has come for Cowen and Lenihan to do their patriotic duty and go and let the rest of us decide who will run our country. And while I think of it his predecessors son in law who warbles with a boy band has called for economic positivity from us.

In Vino Veritas

Until the last few days Fianna Fail and the Greens have been telling us how the wider world understands what the government is doing to tackle the economic slump that they brought upon us much better than the rest of us who merely inhabit this great little country. Eamon Ryan frequently tells us that if Anglo Irish Bank couldn’t stay business then, every other bank would suffer a credibility problem and they entire financial system in the country would collapse with job losses the inevitable result.

That was until last week. Now we know that Anglo Irish will never give out so much as another cent in loans. There’s been no run on any financial institution ,indeed Brian Lenihan has been turning up on RTE’s “Freefall” effectively portraying himself as a detached observer in the entire fiasco while his immediate predecessor Brian Cowen and their buddy “President Bertie” seemed in denial about the roles they played in collapsing the economy.


To further sink national morale it now seems that the Taoiseach Brian Cowen had more of a drink in than a think in with his party in the west this week. I find it amazing that the night before a major interview that he spent it on the lash and could hardly speak the following morning, sounded confused and rambling on key issues such as the Croke Park agreement, legislation on corporate donations and the future intentions on electing Dublin’s Mayor as well as the timing of 3 key by-elections.

The FF spin that government hands are tied on key issues and that the greens were getting their agenda was blown out of the water. The real reason why there is a constant drift is lack of leadership. There is a real feel of decay in the corridors of power, Last week it was the barmy idea that charging holders of ATM cards to withdraw their own money would deter Tiger kidnappings. This week the Science Minister was on the verge of launching a book denying evolution.

In the background is the reality that there is no more to cut despite Brian Lenihan’s commitment to find an extra €3B from current spending so as to keep on target. The next budget is just 12 weeks away and unless the plug is pulled that budget will cut social welfare to the bone, tax those on low income more and devastate health, education and communities. If you don’t believe me just look at what the HSE is considering in one hospital; unpaid leave of absence of 4 days so that the HSE can remain within budget for the rest of the year.

So what is the alternative? The reality is that the Greens and Fianna Fail have committed so much of our revenue to bailing out banks that our international credibility is now down the drain. We’ve no money now and none for the next 10 years. Despite all the plans the well is dry. In vino veritas means the truth comes out through wine. The truth is that whoever is office has no money to spend for 5 years so what can any new government actually do?

What FF & FG actually share is a poor sense of vision. I don’t get the Enda Kenny suggestion that it’ll take 10 years to revive the economy. Noel Browne didn’t take 10 years to rid the country of TB during the 50’s at a time of similar intellectual paralysis. The ESB built power stations, bogs were developed, there exists similar potential to develop our own resources in the interest of the national economy; fishing for non quota species off shore, tourism, agriculture, the arts. Of course that would require us to ditch the globalised model that FF & the Greens are so attached to now. Perhaps they’d change their opinion on the way forward if they could start a vineyard?

Deja Vú all over again!

Oh dear, the silly season has arrived once more. I’m certain it’s here as the latest word is that Brian Cowen is to be challenged in the autumn by Brian Lenihan who when he wins is going to call a general election. And if Brian isn’t well enough he’s going to support Mary Hanafin who’ll win and call a general election too. Its not for me to prejudge the Irish electorate but on present form, I’d suggest for any FF leader who’s going to take over and then take us into an election not to go to bed as they’ll likely miss their short time in office.

Its not too long ago that Brian Cowen was winning the accolades that Brian Lenihan now accepts. In the last few days of the Ahern era Cowen’s ratings in the opinion polls were similar to the regard that Lenihan now is now held. Cowen single handedly turned the 2007 election around on the last week-end. There are many FF TD’s who owe their seats to Cowen. The fact that Cowen was complicit in the economic slump is neither there nor there for many FF TD’s. The fact that Brian Lenihan has prolonged the chaos and has thrown good money after bad will not in time be seen as a positive.

Brian Lenihan is now getting the plaudits of the media for what exactly?
· 2 years ago Lenihan promised that as we were first into recession we’d be first out, That forecast was wildly inaccurate.
· Lenihan forecast NAMA will make a small profit over its lifetime, we now know based on the haircuts proposed that it’ll never make a profit
· Lenihan’s bank guarantee scheme bailed out subordinate bondholders sucking cash out of schools, hospitals and the economy
· The jaded old boys network that controlled Irish banking was replaced with…eh… a jaded old boys network that controlled Irish banking!
· Do you know any SME who’s got a loan lately?


I’ve always felt that Lenihan is a triumph of style over substance since I heard him tell an audience in Wexford 2 years ago that things are never as bad as they look and never as good as they seem. Lenihan has deflected the criticism over the lack of regulation to the Financial Regulator. True, the regulator has a responsiblity for what was happening here and we know that the economic collapse was home grown, but what was going on in the Central Bank and more importantly the Department of Finance Summer 2 years ago when they spun a line that banks were doing ok when Lenihan was putting the finishing touches to his re-adjustments? . Cowen's own disastrous tenure as Finance minister was peppered with references to soft landings that we now know to be guff. I once said on local radio in Wexford that it takes 10 years to find out what is going on today in this country. Time will prove me right that Lenihan is no superman when our ountry stagnates under the strain of his ank bail out when other econmies flourish.
My take is how near are we now to recovery? I‘ve concluded that when you take away the hype the answer is; no nearer than 2 years ago. The only chance that FF and the greens now have is if they can point to an economic stabilistion in 2012. The country wouldn't wear another FF unelected Taoiseach until then. Regardless of where we might be at in 2012, the political retribution on a 2nd unelected FF leader posing as Taoiseach may be significantly worse than on Brian Cowen no matter when a General Election is called.

We are at the bottom of the pit and there is no sign that any recovery will happen in the near future. Emigration will see the return of non-national immigrants. The typical image of this sub-group is that they are mostly young, living in rented accommodation, single and mobile. These people will never return. Not too far behind and already going are young Irish people once they see better paid jobs elsewhere although the US and UK seem for different reasons unlikely to be the destinations, unless you want a job building an Olympic Village. These are people with the ability to spend more of their income than people with mortgages which are now climbing while incomes are dropping. When I hear the government talking about stimulating demand and consumer spending, I don’t know where the increase in spending is going to come from.

Lenihan should bare in mind his won maxim of "we're all in this together" and ask if that exteds ot each member of the FF parlaimentary party. More to the point if you believe the polls and I don’t put a huge meas on them as a guide to a final result, who’d want to lead a government for 4 weeks and an opposition for 8 years? Given how the FG move against Enda Kenny colapsed and the derision that the plotters earned, who'd willingly conspire in FF? Explain that one Phoenix!

Henry’s sleight of hand hands FF a diversion in time for Red C Poll.

It could only happen to the Irish! A bankrupt nation with amoral political leaders lecturing to the world about fair play. A full year on from Seanie Fitz’s sleight of hand, the ire of Eire is diverted away from those who ripped us off to Thierry Henry an overpaid diver who pulled a fast one.
OK I’m sorry that Ireland won’t be at the World Cup. I believe that it would have been the fitting last hurrah for many of our players. Surely it should be left to sports people to deal with it. There won’t be a replay, the French World Cup kit is for launch next week with the lucrative Christmas market on the horizon and with the pressures of premiership and champions league, there won’t be time for a re-match. The only re-match I want to see is the FF versus the people at a polling station. For some strange reason FF and their acolytes aren’t too anxious on that one..

Of course that didn’t stop Brain Cowen, Martin Cullen and Dermot Ahern calling for a re-run and sounding righteous about injustice. Of course their concern at injustice doesn’t extend to their own citizens who will face cuts in income, increased charges and lower standards of living while the banks sell Cowen, the newly discovered soccer pundit, a dummy on pay for top execs. The sight of Sarkozy embrace the triumphant Dominech in the tunnel after the match had all the spontaneity of Christmas Day, performed for the benefit of the cameras. Of course Sarkozy makes the fundamental mistake of mistaking the mood of the people. More than 88% of French people believe that Ireland should have gone through. Could a higher figure been recorded in Ireland? I doubt it!

Likewise Cowen misjudges the mood of the people. I strongly suspect he is attempting to seek the high moral ground to increase his standing in the face of the electorate. This will backfire too. By the week-end the premiership will be back on and fans will have more soccer to watch. If FF temporarily climb in the tracker poll that will be carried out this week, then the international incident around the match will have served FF and the Greens well. The suits in AIB likewise will smile that these events have taken them off the front of the pages. But in the long run Cowen should know that he’s finished despite all his platitudes. That’s why his spin on fair play won’t work.
Patriotism and nationalism is the last retreat for the scoundrel. When the budget is announced Ireland’s world cup exit will be a memory. Thierry Henry may be a cheat, but he didn’t undermine the banks, the economy nor set the public service against the private sector. The real cheats are Cowen, McCreevy, Ahern, Harney, Gormley and Lenihan. The real culprits need to take the rap!

Ireland, the DDR of the 21st century.

It’s hard to imagine that 20 years have passed since the momentous events of 1989. The collapse of communism in Europe resulted in an entirely different geo-politics to that of the 1980’s. I visited Berlin twice, spending an interesting afternoon in July 1981 in East Berlin. It was how I imagined 1950’s Ireland to be; subliminal repression, nothing for sale and people itching for foreign currency and to get out. Steam trains, few cars and few foreigners were some of my other memories as I smuggled money in through Checkpoint Charlie to buy a few mementoes of Erich Hohnecker’s socialist paradise.

When I toured the Reichstag the guide showed the chamber that was being maintained for the sitting of the united German parliament, whenever that would be. I figured they’d be waiting and that Ireland would be united long before that parliament would meet. Never was I so wrong!

Nobody saw the collapse coming. I don’t credit Reagan or Thatcher with the collapse. Two ideological heavyweights sent communism down; Pope John Paul 2 and Mikhail Gorbachev. We now know that Thatcher opposed the reunification of Germany concerned at how a strong Germany would have more influence on the European and world stage. Gorbachev allowed the system to collapse because he felt it could be improved by reforming it internally in the USSR. What other Warsaw Pact countries did was their own business.
As Brian Cowen heads to Berlin to mark the anniversary he may reflect on how our own system is falling round our ears and the interesting similarities between Ireland now and DDR then. Both states share dysfunctionality. Both countries face economic ruin, parties in power that were past their sell by date, a new “leader” at the helm, cronyism, media parroting the party line, and an establishment deluding itself at its international status. To be fair to Cowen; Hohnecker also had an unsurpassable taste for a police state, a corrupt sports medicine programme and executing natives who wished to leave, all designed to keep him in power. Cowen on the other hand has stayed in power by a deal with the Green Party and the Bankers.
Where the DDR had a wall we have a glass ceiling ensuring that our oligarchies cannot be held to account. Ten months on from raids at Anglo Irish Bank, there’s no sign of charge against those who effectively thrashed the state. DDR cronyism saw Hohnecker’s wife appointed a minister. Disaffection among the people toward the elite and their inability to grasp what was happening meant Hohnecker believed the wall would last 50 year just 9 months before the DDR collapsed. Just as DDR referred anything controversial to Moscow, Cowen defers to the outside influence of the IMF, markets and bond holders. Cowen and Hohnecker never wanted to annoy the powerful outsiders.

Both states failing have been cruelly exposed rapidly during an international state of flux. Internally morale in each state slumped. The DDR lasted 40 years, our republic has survived for double that. Just as Hohnecker’s SED had his pets, Cowen’s FF has Bankers, builders and auctioneers. Hohnecker's state ignored the impact of its environmental destruction in pursuit of a more productive economy. Likewoe Cowen ignored the impact of his indutrial policies on society too.
There is nothing to suggest that Ireland will be any different and that if or more correctly when Eamon Gilmore picks up the pieces after Cowen, he’ll have one hell of a job to rescue this state from an amoral mass that it ha descended into under FF. If the corrupt DDR system can disentegrate could the same happen here?

Can you make Sense or Sensibility from Mary Coughlan?

Our Tanaiste has an extraordinary talent for grabbing the headlines. Her namesake who sings the blues must be mortified when she hears some of the things she comes out with? One Mary Coughlan sings the blues, another delivers them big time! Since her promotion by Brian Cowen she has rarely been out of the headlines because of her gaffes. If there was an Olympic medal for gaffes, this minister’s neck would have sores from the weight of metal hung from it. To be fair to her I’ve always suspected there’s a certain amount of bias against her because she is a woman on the part of the media. For all her incompetence, she didn’t ignore the FAS shambles as Mary Harney did, sanction e-voting as Noel Dempsey or Martin Cullen did or hide behind civil servants as Micheal Martin famously did or sanction PPARS or sell out the tax payer as Woodsy did as he was going out the door to some religious orders.

The constant focus on Mary’s gaffes once more underpin the truth of what Albert Reynolds once said, “You get over the big issues but it’s the little things that trip you up”. So I’ll excuse the slip of the tongue today in the Dail when she mixed up the election with the budget which sounded extraordinarily like “bullshit” when she actually got round to saying it. Likewise I won’t too worried about her not knowing that many years ago each EU country appointed one EU commissioner only because FF have no EU allies and have no role of any significance in EU decision making. I don’t fret when she uses expletives when out canvassing for a FF candidate nor when she mixes up Einstein with Darwin, she’s not a science graduate but a social science graduate and there’s a big difference. I start to wonder when I hear she will legislate to discriminate against gay people.

I get more worried when she wades in with suggestions that McCarthy’s Report makes no sense. She was speaking in the absence of the Taoiseach and representing the government. To make matters worse the most senior other Minister technically her junior, basically has just rubbished her view. It seems to me that her credibility is melting away and that she is this year’s Sarah Palin. Now Sarah didn’t get her hands on the levers of power, Mary on the other hand has been pulling hard for all she’s worth for some years and the more she pulls the more uncredible she gets. When McCarty proposes cuts and Coughlan says they male no sense, don’t minister tell me what you think tell me what will happen.
The FRC in The Rocks needs the money McCarthy will cut to survive, not Minister Coughlan’s inner thoughts. Parents with children with SNA’s need to know if their child will still benefit from this vital help, not whether the minister view of how much, much of the report, makes no sense. I could go on but I think you get my drift. When the Tanaiste starts to stop being a figure of fun and starts being a source of obfuscation, I start getting worried. I think the Tanaiste will be marginalised by her colleagues. She plays no role in Lisbon but admonishes the other parties. She is out of her depth, her humiliation at the hands of Dell management in the run up to job losses there earlier this year inspire no one that this is the Minister that will turn around the unemployment crisis. It’s the stuff of nightmares and the man responsible for this is Brian Cowen. What’s more I fear no one is asking the Taoiseach why he appointed her as Tanaiste when many were suggesting that Mary Hanafin or Brian Lenihan would be better in that role.
It’s a matter of being afraid, be very afraid!

Taxing questions for future generations

Today the Commission on Taxation has reported after 18 months. Both Brians as Finance Minister have put off decisions on revenue citing the report. It goes hand in hand with the McCarthy report, McCarthy was recommending what would be cut and the commission on what would changed in terms of revenue. Most age earners expected this report to set out tax equity but nobody told the commission that what McCarthy was taking with one hand that the state would redress in terms of revenue.

What is significant is that the trade union rep on the commission refused to endorse it. Many reliefs for PAYE workers will end if the report’s proposals go through. Its suggested that tax credits for union membership and waste charges will go. There’s no wealth tax, tax exiles remain outside the net while carbon taxes, water charges and a property charge will come in. The commission plan to tax social welfare and child benefit. There’s no mention of the pension levy. Workers (many in low pay) in the civil service will see the report as a further pay cut dressed up as a type of equity. The Irish taxation system penalises those on low income, they benefit least from changes in the tax system. Carbon taxes will increase how much people pay for fuel. Those on low income pay more of the income on fuel than the likes of me. They call it fuel poverty because these people cannot afford to insulate their houses yet if they could, they’d save even more. As Deputy Mayor I launched the WARM project in Wexford to insulate houses of elderly people. Could there not be a better return if a national insulation project was rolled out simultaneously with the carbon tax, a tax that I fear will drive Northern motorists out of Southern forecourts.
I don’t object to a property tax if it’s collected by the local authority on all property. A flat charge of €900 per house is mind boggling but I suspect that this plan will not go through and the old reliables of those on low to moderate incomes will shoulder the burden of the collapse in property based revenue measures. Another to bite the dust is the plan to categorise agricultural buildings as commercial from the point of rates. Expect the Bed and Breakfast sector to protest against the proposed rating of these premises. Increasing the landfill levy in addition to removing PAYE tax credits for service charges will see bin charges rise when in the last year they’ve dropped. Expect back yard burning to increase and perhaps well boring too!
So what would I do? Well I’d suggest ending tax shelters, pursuing those who have taken their money outside the jurisdiction, I’d introduce a top tier of tax on incomes over €100K. Do we actually now need tax relief for nursing homes as according to Minister Eamon Ryan hotels in the NAMA basket of properties should be redeveloped as nursing homes. But to tax child benefit? Last years row over Over 70’s medical cards will be like a tea party by comparison.
The report is still predicated on the McCreevy plan to have a low effected tax rate but to deliver top rate services, but it’s an impossible circle to square. We can only re-distribute what we raise, my difficulty is that those who need it more seem to get it less from the report.

Lisbon 2 slipping away as the government sleep walks again

It’s a little over a month to the re-run of Lisbon but you wouldn’t believe there’s a campaign on. The government is asleep at the wheel. The Taoiseach who promised to lead the campaign has been invisible for the last month. Fianna Fail’s organisation which is in no order to fight a campaign after the kicking it got in the locals, is moribund. The Greens are agonising over NAMA and will be re-negotiating the programme for government.
On top of all of this is a government that is complacent because of the polls and while they secured clarification of matters arising from the issues identified by the Oireachtas sub-committee set up in the wake for the Lisbon 1 defeat, there’s a presumption that the people will turn out and will beg forgiveness from FF & The Greens on October 2 and nod it through.
As someone who lays a huge significance in particular on the Charter of Fundamental Rights as an advance for the citizen and I instanced at the last referendum how it could advance rights in education, an area that the EU has been happy to leave to subsidiarity , I’m pleased that our education system may have to justify itself to international norms under Lisbon. In the past I’ve voted for Lisbon and Amsterdam but against SEA, Maastricht & Nice. I’ve always believed that because treaties are so complex that you’ve got to decide on balance either yes or no. There’s always something that’s beneficial and something that’s detrimental to each nation in EU negotiation, you won’t get everything and what’s agreed is a compromise of all nations negotiating, So what’s important to me is not what’s agreed but who’s there negotiating and what they stand for. A Europe governed mostly by right wing parties gave us Nice and the SEA. 20 years ago the balance tipped in favour of corporations and market interests while the citizen was seen merely as a consumer in Maastricht & Nice.
Ultimately it’s a matter of trust. Labour was lucky in having Prionsias De Rossa as part of the team at the early stage of the treaty discussions. Do I think he’d sell out the interest of ordinary people in this country to people like Berlusconi? Do I think that grandstanding on issues like abortion and neutrality that have been dealt with in previous treaties is the way forward? Talking about trust, Would I lose sleep at night if Charlie McCreevy or any other right wing Irish politician wasn’t in the commission? You should know the answer on all of these.
Talking about abortion, it’s not the way I’d be happiest with but then I’m a democrat and I believe that if a society puts in place a right that you can’t take it away unlike the People’s Movement who want referenda every week on the same issue)

But what mostly worries me is that many other people would share my views and yet they now distrust the political class because of the government’s incompetence. I think that if nothing changes in the next month that it is likely that the people will once more reject Lisbon and then we as a nation will be in a very serious position. The problem for the government is that it may be rejected for different reasons now, NAMA, the banks, unemployment, cuts etc.
One FF TD quoted this week says he detects a death wish among the people. I don’t get that at all, the Irish people still want what’s best. The problem for FF & The Greens is that they see this government delivering the worst, the people have given up on them and can’t wait to see the back of them.
Cowen to go after Lisbon 2 is beaten, a general election of national renewal to follow will see Labour in power driving the agenda of government. That's the best Europe can hope for and that Ireland can offer.

Just a little prick that won’t hurt!

Those are the reassuring words that down through the years associated with an injection. You knew who was in charge and you know you could trust the nurse or doctor. H1N1 is a strain of a flu virus. Flu viruses have the ability to jump the species barrier. They’re often found in poultry, commonly in the Far East but this latest strain is interesting as it has been developing in Mexico in pigs for the last 10 years. There has been sporadic outbreaks of swine flu in the last 30 years. Swine flu is significantly different to the avian flu that dominated the headlines recently. Earlier this year an outbreak in Mexico and California of swine flu killed over 200 people and suddenly the rest of the world woke up. The symptoms of swone flu are similar to other flus and it is difficult to specifically diagnose swine flu without a laboratory test.

Ireland has been relatively untouched by the swine flu outbreak about our case rate is 20% of the UK total. 6 people have died in the UK. In all fatal cases the flu was a secondary infection to an initial condition. The possibility of large numbers of fatalities from such a pandemic is very low. There is however enormous potential for infection from human to human. Good hygiene, social distancing and strict management of access to pig production units will see little transmission form pigs to humans. Already a vaccine is being developed.
The infection is contagious for the first 5 days of infection but in children it can be contagious for double that. Typically flus peak during the winter months but this pandemic could be spread earlier. For most who’re unfortunate enough to suffer the illness it’ll mean a week off work in the bed and no more. Most cases are mild. Most cases are found in young people, elderly, pregnant women and those already weakened by another illness,
Which makes the decision by the government to spend over €80M on over 7M doses of vaccine to vaccinate the entire country against the virus quite bizarre. Even more curious is the plan to prioritise key decision makers for early vaccination. Even though Cabinet Ministers aren’t young, elderly, pregnant or ill they’re first in line for the jab. 9 months ago the government said they couldn’t afford the €8M to vaccinate young girls against cervical cancer even though 180 cases are diagnosed every year and many can be fatal. Now however the money can be found to vaccinate those key decision makers (i.e ministers who’ve deferred any corrective decisions on the economy until October!) before the rest of usIt used to be the case that key decision makers in the context of life and death used to say women and children first when it came to a seat on a lifeboat. In the modern post boom economy Fianna Fail and the Greens have obviously decided that the pandemic can be best directed from a position of immunity, just as the bankers have been firewalled against the real world the government have gone one step further to ring fence themselves against a viral threat ahead of real vulnerable groups.

Wexford’s local election campaign now in full swing

Today the election campaign turned a corner. Nominations closed at noon. I was the first candidate to lodge my nomination papers last Monday as I’d to rush back to class ahead of my 4 Labour colleagues lodging their papers! The response this week continues to be positive to our campaign. We’ve covered the north end of town and each evening voters tell us how they’re glad its not FF or the Greens who’re calling. The only issue is the collapse in the economy resulting from FF & the PD’s mismanagement and the Greens now riding shotgun on board the Cowen express. All other issues are secondary. Fine Gael are behaving like the cat that’s got the cream but we’ll see about that in 3 weeks time.

In Wexford Borough there are 23 candidates declared for 12 seats, 5 Labour, 4 FF, 4 FG, 2 SF, a Green and 7 independents. In 2004 there was just 19 candidates with a quota of 535 votes from a turn-out of just 50% in the urban area. As someone pointed out to me, e-voting machines provided for just 15 candidates, what would have happened in the event of the number of candidates exceeding the number of options on the machine? There’s plenty of choice and I think that the increase in candidate number will bring out extra voters. There are significant changes since 2004.

The boundary of the council has been increased to include all lands inside the by-pass and about 1 mile north of Wexford Bridge towards Ardcavan. The functional area of the council provides for 20,000 people with an electorate of 15,000. Wexford is quite unique in that there are no wards and the entire town is 12 seater constituency. If a similar turn out of 50% occurs in 2009 the quota will be about 580. I expect a higher turn-out than in 2004. I think the quota will be close to 600 if not greater. This may surprise some of the candidates. Heretofore candidates relied on family networks to deliver votes but as family size has dropped and quota climbs the old way of winning may not be the sure-fire winner it once was.
Today Nessa Childers was back in town. Poor weather resulted in less people walking the streets so Nessa met with St Jospeh’s Community Youth Group before canvassing in Tesco and Pettits Supervalu. Nessa got a very positive response from voters and I think the Wexford welcome put a spring in her step as she returned to Dublin and further positive polls showing that she could win a seat in the European Parliament. However lets remember no one has voted yet, there’s still 3 weeks to go. If a week is a long time in politics what does that make 3 weeks? It’s time to get the heads down and work in for 3 more weeks. The election is only warming up and doesn’t end until June 5th at 10 PM. It’s only then we can count the votes not now!

Brian Cowen slipped into town to throw his weight behind the Fianna Fail campaign. Senator McDonald was visible in support of her man and Fianna Fail’s Bobby O’Neill marshalled his supporters as shops closed on Main St to escort the Taoiseach past the few curious on-lookers catching a glimpse of the Taoiseach on the day satisfaction with his government slumped to 10%. Conspicuous in their absence were many faces I’d associate with Fianna Fail in Wexford however I’m sure there are other reasons for that other than the fact that Fianna Fail’s local election campaign in Wexford is in a shambles. 2 FF candidates have no posters up yet and one is reported to be outside the state for the next week.

Cowen cited in UK Property Row as "not known at this address"!

The Taoiseach Brian Cowen has become embroiled in a row in the UK arising from his family investment in student apartments in Leeds. The Taoiseach and his wife, Mary are listed as two of 12 named investors in a company Carrs Mills Investment Partnership. Timesonline.co.uk report that Carrs Mills Investment Partnership invested in the construction of a student cluster apartments described as a hall of residence at Leeds University. The website reports that the project was financed by Allied Irish Banks to the tune of £12.5 M in 2005 when Cowen served as Ireland’s Minster of Finance. The value of the property is now believed to be significantly less than the initial 2005 value put on the property.
The court action results from the Newcastle based freeholder taking a case seeking payment of ground rents and management fees worth £100K from the investors who the freeholder claims had no right to sub-let the property to Leeds University. The Irish investors will deny this claim.One of Taoiseach Cowen’s partners in the investment was convicted in the Irish courts of administering Clenbuterol (Angel Dust) to cattle in 1996 and sentenced to 12 months imprisonment. Mr Cowen and his co-investors initially took out the loans in 2005 when he served as Ireland’s Minister of Finance. According to a student interviewed at Carr Mills annual rents of around £4,000 are charged by the university. Mr Cowen’s apartment can accommodate seven students in individual bedrooms sharing a kitchen and dining area, suggesting an annual return of up to £28,000.
It was when the developer sold on the freehold to a Newcastle based firm Adderstone Group that irregularities between the developer and the Irish investors surfaced. The freeholder claims that the Irish syndicate sub-let to the university without the authority of the freeholder
The freeholder describes that action as “an irredeemable breach of covenant”. Bills sent out to the individual lease-holders for ground rent and management fees have not been paid. The most recent claim for management fees sent to Mr Cowen’s address as recorded in the Land Registry was returned, with a note attached saying “Not known at this address”. 60 Merrion Square, in the heart of Georgian Dublin and a stone’s throw from Leinster House and the Offices of the Taoiseach. It is a four-storey town house with two residential apartments on the upper floors and offices, which are vacant and available for rent. The property contains the office of Mr Enda Hunston, MD of Mr Huston seems to have an extraordinary interest in the Irish tax dodging rock combo U2 as his horses are called “It’s a beautiful Day” and “Where the streets have no name”. Mr Hunston’s horse Freeloader interestingly raced at the Galway Races in 2007 finishing 2nd in the Guiness Galway Hurdle in front of the adoring Fianna Fail faithful at the Galway tent.

The revelations about Mr Cowen’s financial affairs could not come at a more embarrasing time for An Taoiseach. In 2008 Mr Cowen introduced a guarantee to protect all savers in Allied Irish Banks. AIB is the sole Irish bank that has yet to see a change in leadership following the colapse in confidence in the banking industry. Mr Cowen’s Finance Minister Brian Lenihan recently decried Irish citizens shoping outside the juristiction appealing to their patriotic duty to support native outlets. The revelation about Mr Cowen’s nvestment in British property will further add to the Taoiseachs embarrasment by the property dealings of his former party running mate, Ger Killaly who recently was before the Irish courts in relation to separte dealings in property.

This development will be potentially embarrasing for the Taoiseach on a number of grounds, In late 2008 the Irish Mail on Sunday asked cabinet ministers if they had beneftted from Anglo Irish loans and just 3 cabinet ministers said they hadn’t. One estimate of Mr Cowen’s liability with regard to the iniatial loan runs as high as €400K. Last week his emergency budget established a state asset management agency NAMA to manage properties finaced by Irish banking istitutions where the developer could not meet outstanding payments. While his predecessor Bertie Ahern was in tribunals regarding his finances Mr Cowen was cited as being above reproach and clearly once more we see Fianna Fail people in potential conflict of interest again, beholdedn financially to the same institution that another predessor Charlie Haughey was in debt to. To paraphrase the bank's attitude to the then leader, "What a great little country we are!" No mention of this issue so far today on rte.ie/news.

NAMA = Need Another Major Allocation

Slowly the grenade lobbed in at the end of the budget is going off. NAMA was created to get the Galway Tent brigade off the hook. Lets tease the mess out a little; Banker loans speculator money to buy a site. The higher the loan, the higher commission paid to banker. Site fails to progress, speculator is due to meet payments so bank hits the wall as he’s got no cash. In steps the state to set up NAMA. NAMA will use tax payers cash. The less they pay the speculator for the devalued asset, the more the bank loses on its loan and the more the pressure on the banks! The more NAMA pays the speculator the more the tax payer is hit up to €80 Billion according to Brian Lenihan.
So impaired loans or structural deficit are two sides of the one coin. I don’t hold with the view that every other country has the same problem. They don’t. The problems are significantly less in France, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, interestingly countries that spend a lot on social infrastructure.
Which brings me back to something that many people are starting to ask me; why are Fianna Fail attached at the hip to speculators and bankers? It seems a case of buy one Fianna Fail councillor and get a commercial development free! They used to say the sun doesn’t set on the British Empire, it seems as of yesterday that the sun has just come up on an Irish tax payer sponsored property empire. This empire stretches further than the British Empire ever stretched, from Dubai to Dungannon, from Florida to Finaghy, we’ve bought the lot, but for how much extra? €30 Billion of what we’ve taken on is outside the jurisdiction.
Why are we propping up developers elsewhere? What is stopping a developer with a limited liability or indeed a number of them acting together, disposing of an asset to NAMA, then effectively choreographing the bidding to avoid competition and re-secure the same asset at a price less than that originally paid by NAMA? If crony capitalism was an Olympic sport, Ireland would win the team medal every time!
Emperor Lenihan like his boss as portrayed by Conor Casby has no clothes. The international banks have downgraded the credit rating of Irish banks who let the cowboys loose in the first place. David McWilliams predicted a number of months ago that the state would have to nationalise all the banks. I’ve concluded it’s got to go that way simply to protect what else is left of our economy against collapse. Nationalise the lot, take the speculators land both here and abroad. There’s a hit on the way anyway for the likes of me in the PAYE sector who’ve always been stuck with shouldering the cost of this state at every turn, would it make me feel better if manners was put by the market on the slump coalition of Fianna Fail, Speculators and bankers? Figure that one out yourself!

Cull of Junior Ministers announced

So there’s 5 junior ministers to go. How many do you know? How many will you miss? Who’s safe and who’s a dead Minister walking? Next how much severance will be paid to retiring ministers and their entourage? The ministers have been told that they have to go by April 21st. I think that there might be a re-shuffle and that some responsibilities may be merged and others replaced. It was a cute move by some ministers who perform in the media to offer their jobs last January when this was first mooted. Most of them had a real job. Notice who didn’t? Well I reckon Cowen did! Could it be possible that it might be the case that more than 5 could go and that a new face might be introduced?
So lets try to predict what may happen. As with the US presidential election when I forecast who’d win where, I’ll put my cards on the table and say who I think is going and who’s staying. First who’s staying; Manseragh, Roche, Moloney, Carey, Haughey, Andrews, McGuinness, Lenihan, Devins, Kelleher, Finneran, Peter Power & John Curran
1. Maire Hoctor should be a likely casualty as a result of her appalling performance to OAP’s in November. Anyone who saw her inept performance on the Haulbowline toxic dump when she clearly couldn’t handle her brief. To add to her problems the junior minister at Health has presided over the downgrading of her local hospital in Nenagh.



2. Trevor Sargent The Greens won’t be ring fenced against loss so he’s a likely target. Do we really need a Minister for State for Farmers Markets? The Department of Agriculture already has another junior, Tony Killeen who’s duties include forestry and fisheries. Could the actual minister not take responsibility for farmers? Sargent has been anonymous since taking office and is a disappointment.


3. Wednesday Wallace. Mary famously got the hump after a previous demotion so she only turned up on Wednesday to vote thence the nickname. Mary represents East Meath but lives closer to the Dail than many Dublin deputies. Consequently the amusement at her detachment from the political process. There are 3 Junior Minister at Health, Maire Hoctor being another. Over manning at the HSE is policed by 3 juniors and one senior. Looks like Mary will have plenty of time on her hands soon.

4. Michael Kitt. A brother of Tom who fell out with Cowen and announced he wouldn’t run again. He’s junior at Environment with special responsibility for local services. As a councillor I haven’t a clue what services he is responsible for. I’ve never seen a document he’s signed Given that Michael Finneran does housing and urban renewal what extra does Michael bring to the table? Time for the minister to pack his kit bag.

5. Noel Ahern. Carey is Cowen’s man in North West Dublin. Noel isn’t. Can 2 ministers be showered on a small 3 seater? Noel has responsibility for road safety, can this not be combined elsewhere in the department? As his brother might have said this wouldn’t have happened if I was still there but the best time to wield the knife is when its not expected.
6. Sean Power. A Kildare deputy who as we all know, is responsible for the information society. This little bit of information may be surplus to requirements in the overall scheme of things. So Sean may be another for the high jump at The Curragh.


So that’s 6 gone, with only 5 Ministers to go! So who is going to be promoted? Well to counter any suggestion of inequality as both women are gone Beverly Flynn will be promoted. This’ll counter any suggestions of crony capitalism and give the government a good inside knowledge of how banks do their business. With George Lee heading towards Fine Gael according to the rumours and Charlie Bird in Washington there’ll be no one to ask hard questions in the media about financial probity.
So when the rating agency sees the new faces in government as they called for last week we can draw the obvious conclusion that the deposed ministers were the fall guys or girls and ironically the one to benefit from corrupt banking could be Beverly Flynn. It could only happen in Ireland!

Law Knave Bertie

Another St Patrick’s Day, is almost upon us and it’s a chance to reflect. If a week is a long time in politics what does that make a year? A year ago Spy Wednesday saw the unfolding of Bertie Ahern. Who’d have thought that exactly one year on from Bertie Ahern’s humiliation by his former secretary Grainne Carruth that rehabilitation would be possible?
However it seems one is well underway just 15 months after a poll showed that Brian Cowen was significantly more popular than Ahern. The little matter of the Mahon Tribunal Report aside the subtle distancing by Ahern from his successor are well underway while an alternative career as a TV anchorman come international statesman and conference tourist blended with a new website have all compounded the smokescreen created by his IFTA award winning series.
The power may be gone but not the opportunity.
Indeed there’s plenty of scope to spin and re-cast the Bertie Myth; He’s peddled several notions in the recent past that clearly show him to be in denial; “The slump wouldn’t have happened if I was in power”, “The rivalry with Tony Gregory wasn’t personal” or “I won it on a horse”. The “ordinary” man who was the most devious of them all and returned the compliment describing his mentor Haughey as “a patriot to his fingertips” didn’t get the original accolade for nothing.
The down to earth socialist who counted plumbers plasterers and publicans as friends yet walked tall with Blair, Sarkozy and “the great President Bush”. When under pressure he hid behind a mask of inarticulate Dublinesse mumbo jumbo to deflect and play for time. A sort of Bang Bang meets Mandela. Extraordinary!
However Bertie’s relationship with Fianna Fail grassroots was quite different to that of Haughey. Haughey’s cumann members would travel the length and breadth of the country to support him during heaves. Ahern on the other hand packed out the court yard of Dublin Castle with cynics who booed him. On more than one occasion while he gave evidence to Mahon I was minded of the emperor having no clothes. It was all for the media. For Ahern it was all about how he was perceived rather than the faithful. Haughey on the other hand knew how to work the party faithful famously saying he’d wouldn’t cut someone’s throat unless there was a percentage in it! Haughey never made it to the Arás but for Ahern the chance is still there in 2 years time. He knows if he can pull something out of the fire in Dublin Central that he’ll feel the people view him differently from Cowen’s FF.
The next 12 months are crucial to Ahern’s undeclared wish to secure another home paid for by someone else once more, this time it’s the tax payer who he hopes will foot the bill in the form of the Arás. So get ready to pay once more for his make up. At least in Cowen’s case that’s one expense the taxpayer has been spared.
However there may just be one fly in the ointment. Should the Mahon Tribunal make a decision that the taxpayer should pay Ahern’s tribunal costs, The overburdened middle class tax payer who seem to be hit for everything and are more likely to vote may take a dim view of Ahern and his antics. As Ahern used to say “A lot done more to do!”