Ireland of the Welcomes!

Life in Ireland is resembling a mood swing. From depression to delight and all points in between. The visit last week of Queen Elizabeth was analysed to the nth degree rightly from the perspective of how we can build a relationship with our nearest neighbour into the future. Interestingly the language used is fundamentally different. No more mentions of “the mainland”, No fake Hollywood shamroguery or leprechauns. It’s been all quite civilised as Ireland benefits from positive exposure on the international stage. Europa League Final and Queen Elizabeth. It’s reported that the number of enquiries about Ireland as a tourist destination has increased greatly.

There’s more to come as Barak Obama will share the stage with the European Rugby Champions Leinster. Given the low value of the Euro against the dollar and sterling and the reductions in price in Ireland the tourist industry will get a boost. Nowhere better able to capitalise than Wexford. I was at the launch of the new portal website for Wexford a few weeks ago in the Opera House and it strikes me that it is up and running a the right time. www.wexford.ie with its tourism theme of “So Old So New” combines business tourism, local business and local administration. Wexford does have an advantage in promoting its tourist product as there are 3 images that the county has nationally; beaches, strawberries and Opera. Providing a strong internet presence will only help.

My own comments at the launch was that few counties had done what we’d done. Local authorities get stick often but in this case Wexford County Council who sponsored the site are due credit. Given Wexford’s location and all it has to offer it’s the first port of call through Rosslare. The need to develop transport links out of Rosslare is outside the local authorities control. During the volcanic ash crisis Bus Eireann objected to the temporary extension of a license for Wexford Bus to allow the collection of foot passengers at Rosslare. If state companies want a turf war rather than to provide a service then the state is missing the point. As once again a threat of a new volcanic ash cloud hangs over aviation Rosslare could once more play an important role. So where’s the railway connection to Waterford and beyond?

I hope that the forthcoming tourist season see more people come to Wexford to see Johnstown Castle, JFK Arboretum, The Irish National Heritage Folk Park, the 1798 Centre and the re-opened museum in Enniscorthy which by all accounts is wonderful. And don’t forget the Opera, and the beaches and of course the strawberries!
Lots to come to, Lots to see!

A day when Dublin and Washington couldn’t be so different

Well it’s the day that Americans have looked forward to more than any other, Barak Obama assumes the presidency and with it a veil can be drawn on the last 8 years of political mediocrity that passed for leadership. Lets be honest, Bush was handed the 2000 election by the failure of the Democrats to win 2 states, Gore’s and Clinton’s. Losing your own turf is unforgivable and yes Bush stole Florida. The debacle about Florida would have been a non-issue if the top 2 Democrats had delivered.
George Bush’s presidency was stumbling into lethargy in 2001. He spent most of the summer on his ranch in Texas and media comment was rife about what his whereabouts and an administration on auto-pilot. It seemed that it looked like another one term Bush in the Whitehouse until that bright sunny September Manhattan morning in 2001. Bush’s behaviour on the day of 9/11 smacks of a rabbit caught in the headlights. Bin Laden rescued Bush’s presidency not once, but twice, on the eve of the 2004 election he issued a tape warning of attacks on the US. This swung waverers behind Bush to deliver another GOP win over a real war hero who’d been softened up by smear, John Kerry.
Tuesday is their chance to wipe the slate clean. How we’d love that chance in this country on the day we mark the 90th anniversary of the first Dail, another day in history when a people started out with optimism for the future. On a day when an Afro American assues the presidency because of a US president named Johnson, we in Ireland mark an event inpsired by his Liverpudlian namesake, Tom Johnson.
5 time zones east of DC things couldn’t be more depressing, one reason why Europeans are enthused by Obama is he gives us a rare commodity in this jurisdiction, namely hope. I don’t believe Obama is any more on the political left than Kerry or Gore, both of whom I believe would have run significantly different administrations to Bush. In politics timing is everything and Obama is the right man at the right time. His tendency to include everyone in his decision making sees Republicans, the Clintons and their allies all on board. If he lets people down then so do they! Smart politics, but I hope for everyone’s sake that he does deliver.

If he wants to see how it pans out when you dither he should ring up the other famous Offaly man Brian Cowen. Exactly a year ago his poll rating was above Bertie Ahern’s now the murmuring among FF supporters is bring Ahern back. It won’t happen. For the modern world’s first republic they may well reflect how far they can go, for us the anniversary of the first Dail may suggest how far we’ve gone indeed whether we’ve moved at all. When you reflect on the aspirations of the Democratic Programme inspired by Cathal O’Shannon and Tom Johnson towards a fairer and equal society one wonders whether their remains in the Mansion House any echoes from the Anglo Irish Bank EGM of last Friday or indeed Batt O’Keeffe will have a Pauline conversion when he reads It shall be the first duty of the government of the Republic to make provision for the physical, mental and spiritual well-being of the children, to secure that no child shall suffer hunger or cold from lack of food, clothing or shelter, but that all shall be provided with the means and facilities requisite for their proper education and training as Citizens of a Free and Gaelic Ireland. The conservatives in Sinn Fein undermined the Democratic Programme 90 years ago, make no mistake the conservatives in Irish society still undermine progress today. I understand as soon as the speeches are over the Back To School allowance is set for the chop at a prolonged cabinet meeting.
Same day 2 nations one looking up and forward another looking down and out!

I call the US presidential election

OK I know that I posted about 6 weeks ago giving 10 reasons why McCain would win, there’s been a lot of water under the bridge since and there’s just one reason why Obama can win. Bill Clinton identified it 16 years ago, It’s the economy stupid. I’m also going against my instinct that says never take any election for granted but something tells me its all over for McCain and that it has been for weeks. So it’s time to say where Obama will win the election not why. The US citizen uses a balanced weighting to elect delegates to an electoral college. For McCain to win he’ll have to turn about 5 big states away from Obama and that’s not now going to happen. I believe the following will support Obama;

California, Florida, New York, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia (first time since JFK) Maryland, DC, Delaware, Rhode Island, Iowa, Washington, Wisconsin, Oregon, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota (Didn’t go GOP even when Reagan ran!), Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Hawaii (surprise surprise!) Florida and my tip North Carolina and even possibly North Dakota. North Dakota hasn’t gone democrat in donkey’s years and if it does it’ll be some achievement, I’m not sure yet so I’ll leave it with McCain for the moment. That gives him a total of 350 Electoral College votes.

The following states I give to McCain; Texas, Missouri, Louisiana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska (hockey moms deliver!) Montana, Utah, Arizona, North & South Dakota.

The only state that I think is too close to call is Indiana. Given the Republican tradition and that if racism is to swing it anywhere, Indiana may have enough in the balance to tip McCain’s way. That leaves it as 185 for McCain. A comfortable victory for Barack, significantly beyond what Clinton achieved because Clinton always had the benefit of a strong third party candidate (Perot) to draw votes away from Bush or Dole.

So all it remains for me to do is to save you McCains last speech of the ’08 campaign. At about 3.15AM (Irish Time) he‘ll say the following word’s “It’s been a long campaign for Cindi & me, I want to thank all those people who voted for me, supported me and campaigned for me since Iowa. About 10 minutes ago I rang Barack Obama to congratulate him on his victory, I pledge my loyalty to him and ask you the American people to do likewise”.

The senate will go 58-42 in favour of the Democrat with Ted Stevens in Alaska having time to pick up the hockey mom while out on parole, Congress will actually see the Republicans not doing all that badly and that any breaks going they’ll get. Having said that they won’t go any where near a majority. I think Democrats to win here by 250-185.

The election was the easy bit, it’s now the real work starts. Believe me there’s a lot to do judging by W.

Desperate situations need desperate remedies

Its only a month since I was certain Obama was set to be overtaken by McCain. However I hadn’t reckoned on President Bush’s incompetence and to be fair neither did McCain because otherwise he wouldn’t have picked such a 1990’s type candidate as Sarah Palin for VP. If a week is a long time in politics, then a minute is a epoch in the money markets.

I assume that the last week in trading in world stocks has eventually struck home. It’s not about rescuing the bankers now, it’s about rescuing McCain. Bush apparently wants to be seen to throw the kitchen sink at it. That’s why Bush is now buying shares in US financial institutions. Sure it smells of left wing interventionism but if Republicans don’t do it, Bush knows the Democrats eventually will, so he’d rather do it now and throw a lifeline to McCain, not of course that the world economies will wait until January.

Lets face facts, if you are male white working class in the US and your future seems guaranteed, as the species most likely to vote Republican, George W is declaring a preservation order on you at least until after polling day. Gone are the elections where presidential candidates were branded as “left wing” or (God forbid !) “Communist”. Bush’s authority in the eyes of the market has disappeared. The US economy is now on freefall.

FDR was in my view the greatest US President ever, he turned the US into a world power within 15 years of an industrial and agricultural crash off the back of his new deal. Obama may have similar potential if he’s elected and given that he’s comparatively young he may well be a hugely influential politician on the world stage for a long time to come. The big if is, can he be elected? Hilary's name may not be on the ballot paper in 4 weeks but like Banquo's ghost its hovering in the background because the economic crisis proves the Clinton maxim “It’s the economy, Stupid”. However, market forces do not obey political will even when it may be in the interest of those who control markets that they should. This is the dangerous territory that events in Wall St now find themselves in.

I believe that events now are beyond the ability of the federal government to contain and that should the uncertainty continue for another week then McCain is finished. Expect the campaign to get personal to distract US voters away from the blindingly obvious!

10 reasons why John McCain will be the next US President

Sorry but I’ve got to be honest. I don’t any longer believe Barak Obama can win November’s Presidential election in the US. If you asked me 3 months ago I’d have said it’s likely. Indeed I wanted it to be likely. The worse thing that’s happened to Obama was the end of the primaries. I hate to say this as I believe he is the better candidate but over the summer a number of things have made me change my mind about him winning. I don’t believe that the US is ready for him yet. For the sake of the US I’d love to be wrong but…..

Here’s why
(1) Touring Europe was a tactical error. France and Germany were countries who opposed the US invasion of Iraq. Speaking to cheering thousands at Tiergarten in Berlin lost him the possible support of the some Americans because they dislike the way that they believe Europeans historically patronise various US administrations over poor judgement calls.
Obama’s support for the war in Afghanistan is something that I wonder about. How far do you go in supporting a government whose hold on power is tenuous in the context of a war from within? 20 years ago Gorbachev recognised the reality and pulled the plug. This contributed towards his undoing as it was portrayed as the Soviet Union’s Vietnam. Is it not the reality that superpower’s don’t do withdrawals? 7 years on from September 11 today, it is essential to ask is it going to end and how? By McCain committing to Bush’s Iraq policy it takes the spotlight off Afghanistan.

(2) Failure to select Hilary Clinton or a woman as a running mate. If he didn’t want Hilary but wanted women to vote for him why not pick a woman as a running mate, Nancy Pelosa? This decision will reduce his appeal to women voters although in fairness the arrival of Palin is no great attraction for Hilary Supporters either. I cannot believe the selection of Palin will do anything other than convince female Clinton supporters to bury the hatchet and vote for Obama but he'll get no more extra female votes than these.

(3) Republicans have succeeded in building on McCain as the maverick outsider despite the reality that McCain comes from a WASP senior military family. Obama who was born to a single mother from modest background who spent his early years living from a suitcase is now boxed in as representing the elite

(4) Obama’s decision to endorse the death penalty. I know in reality he probably had no alternative given how Ducakis was slaughtered over an inmate he released on parole who subsequently murdered again. For many liberal democrats there is a worry that the US is up alongside China and Iran in terms of numbers executed

(5) Electorate associate him with Islam. Nothing wrong with that even if he was but he isn’t. In a society where even a catholic has difficulty being elected to the highest office in the land, a candidate can do without the subliminal association with a religion where some members have turned the teachings on its head to suit their own end. When Ted Kennedy ran at least he didn’t have to deal with the innuendo that he was an IRA supporter.

(6) McCain is more attractive to Irish Americans because of his support for immigration reform. I now that he has back tracked on this in recent months but it was interesting to hear Irish Immigration Platform spokesperson criticise Obama for taking little interest in the matter. Hilary could not have been accused of that. This matters in Irish America to independent voters.

McCain has a genuine war record. He spent time in captivity and while in the US there still is the residual shame of the Vietnam disaster there is a strong respect for vets among the electorate. This is precisely why Kerry should have won 4 years ago however he was shamefully smeared by the Republicans. Obama cannot compete on this aspect. McCain has another record he'd rather not draw attention to, his medical record. Can this be a turn off for the elctorate?

(9) Sarah Palin will bring the evangelical vote on board despite McCain’s record of being liberal on abortion. All, the buttons are being pushed in the Republican heartland to get the troops out in November, that’s Palin’s role. Personally I always thought Condi Rice would be nominated to neuter Obama’s Afro American appeal and also pull in the woman. To be fair she is vastly superior in terms of experience to Palin. The “great state of Alaska” as McCain calls it has the population of Dublin’s norhtside. Palin’s experience is akin to that of a County Council chairperson. The breeding ground for the Vice President of the Free World? The polls are tightening and Obama is being reined in. One big plus for McCain is that the electorate knows who Palin is and what she looks like. Can the same be said for Biden?

(10) I still wonder whether the US is ready for a black president. I still believe that there exists prejudice towards black people. The hatchet job done in Florida in 2000 chiefly targeted the black population despite it not being considerable. The only reason we ever heard about Florida was because it was so close a few thousand votes among 20 million cast. How likely is it that it went on in other states before but it was never highlighted simply because the result was never in doubt?

Hopefully in 7 weeks time someone will dust this down and point out how wrong I was. Here’s hoping. Maybe after all that it may just come down to who would you like to have a beer most with?